Tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN the NBA Draft will kick off with the Minnesota Timberwolves going first. Whomever they decide to choose will be part of history, as the Wolves will become the first team in league history to have three consecutive No. 1 overall picks on the same roster. Fans can live stream the draft free by clicking this link.
SWN is not only going to offer up a mock draft of how the lottery will wind up, but what these teams should do as well. The mock will be fluid, as will our advice. For instance, if Jahlil Okafor is mocked first overall, then he's out. If the pick should be Karl-Anthony Towns, in that section, Towns will be gone, but Okafor is available. Essentially, the should section is a second mock based on how SWN reads each team's needs.
Without further ado, here is the SWN lottery mock.
Minnesota Timberolves
They Will Take: Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky.
They Should Take: Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky
This one is easy. Towns is not as advanced as Duke C Jahlil Okafor, but he does have post chops, he can shoot the lights out from mid-range, and he's an extremely active defender and rim protector. The Wolves are in best player available mode, and most scouts agree that means Towns.
Los Angeles Lakers
They Will Take: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
They Should Take: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
This one's not as easy, but just because the NBA is favoring versatile wing players who can shoot and defend, that doesn't mean incredibly gifted post scorers should be shunned. The Memphis Grizzlies do well with size down low, and an inside-out game. The Lakers have a storied history of great centers, and Okafor has the talent to live up to that. Defensively he needs work, but don't forget he's only 19.
Philadelphia 76ers
They Will Take: Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Sevilla
They Should Take: D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State
The Sixers are a tough team to figure out, because they may be actively trying to seek out players that won't help them as much now as they will later. Porzingis has been playing overseas vs. high-level competition, and in some circles draws comparisons to Kevin Durant. In other reports, he's likened to Andrea Bargnani. A wide gap to be sure, but there's a lot of upside and Philadelphia clearly doesn't mind waiting.
Russell would help them immediately, and they're also missing a point guard after trading away 2013-14 Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams.
New York Knicks
They Will Take: D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State
They Should Take: Justise Winslow, G/F, Duke
Knicks fans rightfully fret about draft night every year but if the draft plays out how we see it, the first three teams will make it easy on them. Russell is a nice choice for a team devoid of any real talent besides Carmelo Anthony and Tim Hardaway Jr. Russell is a playmaker, and he can ease the burden on Anthony to play like LeBron James, and just be his natural, scoring self.
However, if the draft goes another way, Winslow is a nice pick. He is a prototypical wing for today's NBA. He has a 3-point shot, and he's the top perimeter defender in the draft class. He will not need the ball, so clashing with Carmelo should not be an issue.
Orlando Magic
They Will Take: Mario Hezonja, G/F, Barcelona
They Should Take: Mario Hezonja, G/F, Barcelona
The Magic are well stocked with explosive, athletic players that can finish at the rim and defend. They do not have much shooting beyond Channing Frye at power forward. Hezonja has mostly played guard, but should be able to slide right in at small forward for the Magic and add an element to their offense that they've sorely lacked-a playmaker who can also shoot.
There are questions about attitude and work ethic surrounding Hezonja, but new coach Scott Skiles should be able to quickly change that.
Sacramento Kings
They Will Take: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Guangdong
They Should Take: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Guangdong
The elephant in the room is the rumors about the Kings trading DeMarcus Cousins and getting the No. 2 pick, among other considerations. This is taking the draft order at its face, but if that were the case the Kings would probably take Okafor or Russell at No. 2, and then a big man or a point guard here based off the first pick.
As it stands in this mock, Cousins is a King, and they could use an upgrade at point guard. Darren Collison is no scrub, but he is more useful as a caretaker on a star-loaded squad, or as a reserve playing fairly high minutes. Here, Collison can educate the young Mudiay, who offers top-notch size and athleticism at an important position.
Denver Nuggets
They Will Take: Frank Kaminsky, F, Wisconsin
They Should Take: Trey Lyles, F, Kentucky
Kaminsky is a hot commodity, a sweet-shooting big man who excelled in college, experienced success, and reminds folks of Dirk Nowitzki. He could wind up being such a liability defensively in a small-ball world though that his value is limited this high in the draft. Lyles is no great shakes right now as a defender, but his offensive game is more versatile and fits with Jusuf Nurkic's bruising style of play.
Detroit Pistons
They Will Take: Stanley Johnson, F, Arizona
They Should Take: Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
Johnson has a glossier college track record, and if the Pistons re-sign Reggie Jackson then Booker would seem redundant. They're better off letting Jackson go and taking the cheaper Booker however. He's younger (not that Jackson's old), bigger, and has more upside. He is a lights-out shooter already who didn't shine to his fullest at Kentucky because of their loaded roster. Booker at this point in the draft may be a huge steal, while Johnson's flaws could make him a bust.
Miami Heat
They Will Take: Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
They Should Take: R.J. Hunter, SF, Georgia State
If Booker's on the board, he's an excellent pick. He is reminiscent of Klay Thomspon with his textbook shooting stroke and great percentages. Shooting guards are tough to find, and rumor has it Miami's longtime two-guard Dwyane Wade just might be bolting in free agency. If he leaves, Booker is an instant replacement, and if not he gets tutored by a future Hall of Famer.
In the should category, Hunter is an outside-the-box choice. He's frail physically at this stage for NBA ball, but assuming Wade returns he would be lethal. Teams have to focus on Wade and Bosh, and if Goran Dragic comes back, he's a problem too. Hunter possesses Stephen Curry-like stroke when he's hot, and he can bomb it from anywhere at anytime. Without heaps of attention, he might become one of the league's most feared pure shooters.
Indiana Pacers
They Will Take: Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
They Should Take: Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
Roy Hibbert is a free agent, and it seems that the Pacers no longer are in love with his verticality. In Cauley-Stein they would have a more modern version of Hibbert; perhaps he won't become the pure defensive ace that Hibbert was in the post, but he will be able to turn shots back and he'll help much more as a cutter and dunker. Cauley-Stein is a hybrid of Joakim Noah and DeAndre Jordan, an immensely useful player in today's NBA. If he lasts to here, this is a no-brainer pick.
Utah Jazz
They Will Take: Sam Dekker, G/F, Wisconsin
They Should Take: Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
Dekker is a safe pick, something Utah would be comfortable making because their core is clear. The big man duo of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert is terrifying, and Gordon Hayward is an excellent shooter on the perimeter. Dekker is good bench filler, and a solid rotation shooter. No team would be upset to have him.
However, Jones has displayed incredible leadership at Duke, even if he was only there a year. He's a top-notch playmaker, and has the guts to take huge shots. Trey Burke has been middling, and Dante Exum wasn't very impressive as a rookie. Jones is a shark, and will force Exum and Burke to sink or swim. If they sink, the Jazz have a capable starting point guard down the line.
Phoenix Suns
They Will Take: Trey Lyles, F, Kentucky
They Should Take: Kelly Oubre, F, Kansas
Lyles is a good fit here, and an excellent value in the teens. The Suns have no studs on the interior, and Lyles can manage well in a run-and-gun setting. He's very athletic, and can really pass the ball. He also can shoot well, so pick-and-rolls with Eric Bledsoe will create headaches.
Kelly Oubre is also a nice fit and good value pick. His athleticism and defensive potential are reminiscent of Paul George. Remember, before becoming one of the NBA's elite players he was the No. 9 pick and considered a raw project. Oubre is in that mold.
Oklahoma City Thunder
They Will Take: Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
They Should Take: Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
Payne makes a ton of sense here, as long as new head coach Billy Donovan can get Russell Westbrook on board with playing off the ball more. Westbrook is a proud point guard, but the damage OKC might do with Westbrook off the ball and being fed the rock but a more traditional point guard could be stunning.
Payne is a solid shooter, unafraid to take and make huge shots, and fits the OKC defensive profile of long, athletic, and willing to take risks. If Oubre is around, he makes sense as well to help OKC play smaller lineups featuring Durant at power forward and Serge Ibaka at center.
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