During fantasy football draft season, fantasy owners are constantly searching for those sleepers that can set a team apart from the pack and win a league. Sometimes though, avoiding the big flops early in the draft can be equally effective.
Today, you'll find five running backs being drafted in the Top 60 overall players that might let you down in PPR formats, a.k.a. leagues in which a full point is awarded per reception.
Arian Foster, Houston Texans
Foster is currently 15th overall in ADP, making him a borderline first-round pick in most leagues. While there's no doubting he's a fantasy football all-time great, owners aren't paying for the past.
Foster's receiving has dipped in each of the past two seasons, and lately he's dealt with nagging injuries. His longtime head coach Gary Kubiak is gone, and so has the zone-blocking scheme that has served him so well. In the eight games Foster played last season he averaged 15 carries per game, five fewer than in 2012.
Yes Foster's only 27 years old, but he has a lot of mileage on him and his receiving upside has dulled. There are better options in early Round 2.
Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
This may be a surprising bust pick, seeing as how Bell averaged 3.5 receptions per game as a rookie. The problem though, is his rushing. Bell ran behind a below-average offensive line a year ago, that hasn't undergone major changes, and managed a weak 3.5 yards per attempt.
Bell was saved by scoring eight touchdowns in just 13 games, but that's reminiscent of another back with crummy yards per carry numbers that were masked by trips to the end zone-Trent Richardson.
T-Rich averaged 3.4 catches per game, averaged 3.6 yards per carry, and scored 11 touchdowns in 15 games. Buyer beware. He's going just four picks after Foster.
Zac Stacy, St. Louis Rams
Stacy was a huge boon for most owners last year since he pretty much came out of nowhere. This year though everyone knows about him, and his ADP (No. 27 overall) reflects it.
In PPR formats though, Stacy is getting overvalued. He's ahead of players like Andre Ellington and C.J. Spiller, who both have superior pass-catching ability and solidified roles in their offenses. In addition, Stacy's rushing doesn't stand out. He averaged 3.9 yards per carry, below the mark of your typical fantasy RB1.
Finally, Stacy's got a ton of competition. Benny Cunningham has been impressive in preseason so far, and the Rams selected Auburn stud Tre Mason in the third round of the most recent draft. Don't be surprised if he doesn't hit 250 carries again.
Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars
Gerhart's value is almost completely based on the workload he's presumed to get. Fans don't see much on the Jags' depth chart at running back and are planning on Gerhart to get 30 carries or so per game.
Teams rarely do that these days though, and even though Gerhart's a huge back, he's never even reached 110 carries in a single season. Investing a pick in the first five rounds on a player with no track record of being a No. 1 back, and doesn't display elite athleticism is extremely risky when more established players are going later on.
Plus, the Jags' offense is no powerhouse and the passing game isn't likely to take much pressure off Gerhart either.
Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans
Sankey is probably going to start this year for the Titans, but the issue with his Top 60 ADP is that those drafting him have probably only seen him a handful of times at most. Investing heavily in rookies is dangerous, and even though Sankey appears to be a capable rusher and pass-catcher, he's not alone in the Titans backfield.
Laugh if you will, but Shonn Greene remains a threat to Sankey's value. He's a proven NFL-caliber back with starting experience. He has a nose for the end zone-he managed to score four touchdowns despite being limited to just 77 carries in 11 games a season ago-and he rushed for over 1,000 yards in two straight seasons before 2013.
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