The MLB hot stove is officially on. The Royals have won the World Series, had their parade, and now, like the other 29 teams in baseball, have to turn their attention to next season’s roster. Here are the top 10 starting pitchers on the market this offseason.
10. Cliff Lee
Remember Cliff Lee? He won a Cy Young, a World Series, and had three straight seasons of 200-plus strikeouts and fewer than 50 walks? He made $25 million last season despite not pitching an inning, and now he’s a free agent. It’s possible that he’s completely done; in fact, it’s probable. But he was such a damn good pitcher before injuries ruined his career that he’s worth mentioning.
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9. Doug Fister
Fister was bad last season, but that shouldn’t have been completely unexpected. His 2.41 ERA in 2014 was a mirage that anyone who knows what FIP is could have projected. He’s not quite as bad as his 4.19 ERA indicates either though. Fister, 31, still has some time before he’s actually OLD, and his ground-ball style of pitching will extend his career. He could be a very nice bargain for a big-market team like the Yankees, who have no room for more bloated veteran deals.
8. Hisashi Iwakuma
Injuries are a problem for Iwakuma, who has only topped 200 innings once in his four-year MLB career, but when he pitches, he’s one of the more consistent hurlers in baseball. He has been at least four games over .500 in each of his four seasons, and his ERA has never crept higher than 3.54. He’s a high-end middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, which is in high-demand. In a deep free agent crop, he could be a bargain.
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7. Jeff Samardzija
This may seem low for the “Shark,” but he’s not that young (30) and he’s not that good (statistically). Samardzija’s 2.99 ERA in 2014 looks like an outlier compared to the other three years he’s been a starter, and his 2015 FIP (4.23) shows that his 4.96 ERA wasn’t some fluke. Samardzija has good stuff, but he’s homer-prone, and has a hard time stranding runners. Last season’s low strikeout rate might be an aberration, so he will pitch better if he can bring it back to about eight per nine innings. If not, he’ll be overpaid.
6. A.J. Burnett
Burnett will be 39 next season, but he’s still becoming a better pure pitcher. He cut his walk rate nearly in half from 2014, and posted a 3.18 ERA that’s backed up by a 3.23 FIP. More than half his outs were ground balls, which helped his 77 percent strand rate.
Still, he’s old, and unlikely to pitch for any team besides the Pirates. Non-contenders need not apply, and at his age, he could lose it overnight.
5. Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo, 29, has already gone through the transition pitchers much older than him have to make. Once a strikeout king, Gallardo has pieced together two seasons of low strikeout, low-home run performances. Gallardo, who pitches in a hitter’s park, keeps guys from swatting the ball over the wall. Gallardo throws six different pitches per Pitch F/X, which helps keep hitters guessing. He was Texas’ de facto ace with no Yu Darvish this season, and he’d make a fine No. 2 or No. 3 on most teams.
4. Jordan Zimmermann
Zimmermann cost himself with a high ERA in the second half of the year, but it’s deceiving. He really was victimized by an uncharacteristic amount of home runs. He was mostly the same guy in the second half as the first, or possibly even better. The problem was he gave up a whopping 16 homers in 90 1/3 innings, after giving up eight home runs in 111 2/3 first half frames.
Zimmermann is still an underrated pitcher, who is durable if not spectacular. He will cost less than the three names higher than him on this list, and he’s probably going to provide more bang for the buck.
3. Johnny Cueto
Cueto, on any given day, can look like the best pitcher in baseball. He barely missed out on the Cy Young last season to Clayton Kershaw, and through the first half of 2015 he was dominant. He got traded to the Royals and had some rough times, but he twirled gems in two of Kansas City’s biggest playoff games. Game 5 of the ALDS and Game 2 of the World Series.
Cueto likely earned a lot of money with those two performances. Too much money. Cueto, 29, has been healthy for the last two seasons, but has a prior history littered with injuries. He’ll outperform the lesser lights on this list on the front end of his deal, but whatever team signs him long-term might be crying as the contract winds down.
2. Zack Greinke
Greinke should probably win the Cy Young this year. He pitched to a 1.66 ERA, won 19 games. But there are some red flags. He is 32 years old, brutal for someone seeking a long contract. He posted a .229 BABIP, which had a LOT to do with that microscopic ERA. His FIP stood at 2.76, which is an elite number, but a full run more than his ERA. Buying a 32-year-old coming off a slightly fluky career year could be a recipe for disaster.
Greinke will age better than Cueto, but expecting a repeat of 2015 ever again from him is ill-advised.
1. David Price
His baffling postseason problems aside, Price is a southpaw, two years younger than Greinke, posted a better strikeout rate, and posted a 2.45 ERA with a .290 BABIP, which is absolutely sustainable. Price is not quite the spring chicken he’s perceived as, but he has as vast an array of pitches as any pitcher in baseball, and elite velocity. Price is also economical, walking fewer than two batters per nine.
Price’s incredible run with the Blue Jays – 9-1, 2.30 ERA, 1.00 WHIP – proved he can pitch against AL lineups in a hitter’s haven. He’s also thrown 200-plus innings in five of the last six seasons, and the one year he failed to reach that, he threw 186 2/3. Price is a workhorse, whose postseason struggles will eventually be overcome a la Kershaw.
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