Before the year started, I gave you some of the top pitching sleepers getting drafted outside the Top 200, both starters and relievers. Now, we're a month in and it's time to see how my boys have fared.
*All ADPs taken from FantasyPros.com
Tim Lincecum (ADP-217.6), San Francisco Giants (Other positions: None)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Once nicknamed "The Freak" for his diminuitive stature and giant velocity, he's now a forgotten man toiling away as San Francisco's clear No. 3 starter.
If you want to rack up strikeouts on the cheap though, go ahead and use one of your final three bucks on Mr. Lincecum. He's not done by any means, and his bloated ERAs the past two seasons came despite much better advanced metrics.
Last year in particular, Lincecum had a 4.37 ERA with 193 strikeouts in 197 innings. He still walks too many batters, but his free passes were down in 2013, and he registered a 3.74 FIP, and a 3.56 xFIP. Now those aren't stellar numbers by any means, but a 200-strikeout arm with a sub-4.00 ERA should be drafted in any league with any kind of settings.
Want a little more? His home run per nine dropped below 1.00, and he's never had an xFIP above 3.82 hs whole career.
After one month: Lincecum's been all over the place. His ERA is dreadful (5.96) and his FIP isn't much better (4.77) but his xFIP tells a truly different tale (2.93). He's striking out more than nine batters per nine innings and walking way fewer batters than he has....well ever. Don't give up. Bench him, wait for the turnaround, then plug him back in.
Yovani Gallardo (ADP-221.2), Milwaukee Brewers (Other positions: None)
Did Yovani Gallardo burn your fantasy staff last year? He torched mine, but that's okay. I'm rolling with the Brewers ace again this year, especially since he can be had for an extremely late pick.
Like Lincecum, Gallardo's FIP was lower than his ERA, he gave up less than one home run per nine innings, and his ground ball rate actually went up. His strikeout per nine numbers were tough to stomach last year-I will admit that-but his velocity didn't drop too much so that could be a fluke. I'd understand if the K/9 numbers scare you, but what's the harm if he's your last pick?
After one month: Gallardo's been great! Woo-hoo! It's not all strawberries and balloons for Yovani, as his strikeouts are down more than ever. Still, he's managing to get outs, and although his FIP is much higher than his ERA (3.46) that's still plenty useful. Next up is getting him some wins-despite pitching for the majors' winningest team Gallardo has only posted a 2-0 record.
Ubaldo Jimenez (ADP-236.6), Baltimore Orioles (Other positions: None)
Remember when Ubaldo profiled as a real life and fantasy ace even though he was pitching in Coors Field? These days nobody wants poor Ubaldo-but that doesn't have to be your problem.
Sure he was inconsistent at times even when things were good, and 2011-2012 were brutal seasons, but they don't count for 2014! Last season he was a major part of the Indians making the postseason, and for all the worry about his lost velocity he set down more than a batter per inning over 182.2 frames. I'll do the math for you-that's 194 strikeouts.
He heads to Camden Yards, which isn't awesome for pitchers, but he also will be backed up by what might shape up to be MLB's best offense. He could easily win upward of 15 games, whiff 200 batters, and post a sub-4.00 ERA. You're telling me that's not a pitcher you're interested in?
After one month: Ubaldo's season has been ugly, ugly, ugly. 6.59 ERA, 5.95 FIP, plummeting strikeouts and skyrocketing walks. It's all bad. Might've been my worst call of all sleepers.
John Axford (ADP-200.8), Cleveland Indians (Other positions: None)
No ifs, ands or buts about it, Axford's been crappy the last two years. However, in 2013 his xFIP was a 3.56, and his high strikeout rates will keep teams giving him chances. He also benefits from following a disastrous Chris Perez year.
I'd take a shot on Axford because there aren't many immediate threats to his role, and his past suggests a sleeping giant; in 2011 he saved 46 games with a 1.95 ERA for Milwaukee.
After one month: Axford has eight saves on the season with a 2.53 ERA, so that's good. On the other hand the advanced metrics aren't so kind, his K/9 is down significantly, and he may or may not be playing with fire with an 87.3 strand rate. Still, he's done the job so I'm happy with the call.
Danny Farquhar (ADP-243.6), Seattle Mariners (Other positions: None)
Farquhar can still help your team, even if your league doesn't count holds. His crazy strikeout rate (12.77 K/9 in 2013) and 1.86 FIP are enough to convince me that his bloated ERA is not telling the story.
In related news, Fernando Rodney is currently Seattle's closer. Rodney can be maddeningly inconsistent, and only transformed into a viable closer in 2009. Even then his ERA's and overall performance left much to be desired. With the Mariners stuck in one of MLB's toughest divisions, if they sink early expect them to turn to Farquhar and explore the trade market for Rodney.
After one month: Farquhar's been impressive, with a K/9 of 9.00 and a 1.38 ERA. Part of the reason I loved him so much was that I though he'd be closer by now, but Fernando Rodney's been fine. That said, he's awesome if your league has holds, and if not he's a good source of strikeouts. One red flag-walking more than four per nine.
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