On Sept. 16 Bovada put odds on Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning retiring at -300, and set the odds at +200 for him to return to the team in 2016. Those odds are likely to change based on Manning’s comments to Patriots coach Bill Belichick following Denver’s AFC Championship win.
"Hey, listen, this might be my last rodeo. So, it sure has been a pleasure," Manning told Belichick after his 20-18 win. Belichick remained mum on their brief conversation, telling reporters “Don’t have anything to share. I shared it with Peyton.”
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Manning is the most prolific QB in NFL history, topping the career lists in yards (71,940) and touchdowns (539) and he has one Super Bowl win already under his belt. He has also undergone four neck surgeries since 2012, and watched his performance plunge for most of the 2015 regular season. He threw nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions this year before being benched for several weeks for Brock Osweiler. He threw two touchdown passes vs. New England though, and avoided being picked for the second straight game.
His admission that the AFC Championship tilt may have been “his last rodeo” has to send his retirement odds skyrocketing.
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If The Broncos Win the Super Bowl
If Denver wins the Super Bowl – far from a given, they’re 4.5-point underdogs – the ending is just storybook. Manning overcoming neck surgery, and a right arm that’s consistently failing him, to knock off a 15-1 team with a brash MVP candidate at the helm?
The narrative is can’t miss, and helped along by the fact that Manning plays for the Broncos, who had John Elway for 16 years, and sent him off into the sunset with two Super Bowl victories. Elway is now Denver’s Executive Vice President of Football Operations, so it’s just perfect that he’d be in the house for this moment. If Denver wins, Manning should be -400 to hang up the cleats, and +350 to come back.
If The Broncos Lose the Super Bowl
Things get murkier if the Broncos don’t win. Regardless of the outcome, the days of Manning being good for 10-12 wins on his own are gone. His arm simply doesn’t have any zip these days, and his mind simply operates too fast for his body. He was an outright interception machine at times, and it was tough to watch.
That said, the Broncos still were a No. 1 seed with most of their games being started by Manning. He has won two straight playoff games vs. the Steelers and Patriots, and he still has two top-flight WRs, and will have them again next year. If they keep the defense intact, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Denver back in the big one next winter. But have the injuries taken their toll, and does he want to come back as a shell of his MVP self? If Denver loses, Manning should remain at -300 to retire, and be +150 to return.
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