“The Big Short” is a star-studded Hollywood film that details how a few people made millions and even billions of dollars by having the foresight to short the booming housing market in the late 2000s. Succeeding in the NFL isn’t too different from that.
The NFL Draft is full of “can’t-miss” prospects all throughout the first round, but inevitably many of them fall well short of their promise. Here are five draft stocks to short in 2016.
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Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss
Nkemdiche is certainly talented, but his arrest after tumbling out of a fourth-story window after a bad reaction to smoking synthetic marijuana doesn’t bode well for him. Smoking synthetic marijuana is not something players with sound decision-making processes do, and although Nkemdiche has great potential, the 2016 class is deep with defensive linemen.
He also has just six sacks in three seasons.
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Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
2016 isn’t the year to draft high if you need a quarterback. Lynch, a 6’7 prototype, is generating a ton of hype after a 28-touchdown, four-interception junior campaign but buyer beware.
Lynch hasn’t faced much in the way of elite competition, and when he went up against Auburn in Memphis’ bowl game he was terrible. Lynch mustered just 108 yards and an interception while completing just 16-of-37 passes. Lynch is big and has the physical tools, but he’s absolutely a project.
Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
Henry was a prolific rusher for the Crimson Tide in 2015, winning the Heisman and stomping all over the Clemson defense in the National Championship. But for all his hulking size, Henry is reminiscent of ex-Tide RB Trent Richardson. NFL.com wrote of Henry, “f he has to stop/start his feet, he struggles.”
That’s not good. Investing a second-round pick in a runner who lacks ability to make defenders miss in the backfield, and can’t dominate without building up a head of steam makes little sense. Perhaps he can be a high-end short-yardage back, but expecting him to be consistently dynamic is probably asking too much.
Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State
Hackenberg isn’t projected to go in the first round right now, but he’s the kind of polarizing talent that could be taken shockingly high – think E.J. Manuel at No. 9 overall in 2013 to the Bills.
Hackenberg was once the No. 1 QB prospect coming out of high school, but his last two seasons have been very underwhelming. In fact, as a sophomore he managed only 12 touchdowns, and threw 15 interceptions. His decision to go pro was a head scratcher; it makes one think he may have gotten word there’s a team or two that believes in him.
Those teams should re-evaluate their love affair.
Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
Fuller has talent, but a knee injury that lingered as he tried to play through it in 2015 is cause for concern. Fuller is a good tackler, and he has good genes -- his brother Kyle excelled for the Bears in 2015 – but the specter of Dee Milliner is still fresh in many minds. Picking CBs with serious injuries is risky business.
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