If you are to believe the latest odds (via Oddsshark.com), there is little Frosted, Materiality and a slew of other horses can do to prevent American Pharoah from winning the illustrious Triple Crown.
Unfortunately for the reigning Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner, races are run on television sets, not paper.
The first obvious obstacle standing in American Pharoah's way is history.
Since Affirmed's memorable run in 1978, there have been 13 horse who entered the Belmont Stakes winners of the first two legs: Spectacular Bid (1979), Pleasant Colony (1981), Alysheba (1987), Sunday Silence (1989), Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), Charismatic (1999), War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003), Smarty Jones (2004), Big Brown (2008), I'll Have Another (2012) and California Chrome (2014).
All 13 stared down 12 furlongs as favorites. All 13 failed.
Note: I'll Have Another was scratched the morning of 2012's race.
Ironically, California Chrome—who finished fourth in 2014—was jockeyed and trained by American Pharoah's current jockey and trainer, Victor Espinoza and Bob Baffert.
One possible explanation for recent history is the amount of Kentucky Derby runners who skip the Belmont Stakes. As many as six rested horses will test American Pharoah at Belmont, with Frosted, Materiality, Keen Ice, Mubtaahij, Carpe Diem and Frammento open to the possibility according to the New York Racing Association (via The Wall Street Journal).
All six failed the test at Churchill Downs, but additional rest and zero pressure, coupled with recent history, will allow one of the six to end American Pharoah's chase for the Triple Crown.
|
Horse |
Odds |
|
American Pharoah |
10-11 |
|
Frosted |
5-1 |
|
Materiality |
13-2 |
|
Mubtaahij |
14-1 |
|
Carpe Diem |
18-1 |
|
Divining Rod |
20-1 |
|
Keen to Ice |
22-1 |
|
Madefromlucky |
22-1 |
|
Tale of Verve |
25-1 |
|
Conquest Curlinate |
33-1 |
|
Frammento |
50-1 |
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