Andrew Luck has spoken optimistically all week about his chances to suit up for the Colts tonight against the Texans, but head coach Chuck Pagano’s latest quote about Luck’s availability is scary for fantasy owners.

“We’re going to do the smart thing,” Pagano said, which sounds a heck of a lot like they’ll play it safe with their franchise quarterback. The Texans are no great shakes, but with pass rushers like J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney lurking, throwing one of the best quarterbacks in football out there with a bum shoulder isn’t wise.

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Luck has said he expects to play, but admitted he is not 100 percent. “I don’t think I’m necessarily where I would want to be today in a perfect, perfect world. But better every day.”

If Luck missed the game, it would be a major hit to the value of just about every Colt, save for Frank Gore. Wide receivers T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and even rookie Phillip Dorsett to a lesser degree, all benefit from Luck’s big-play ability. With Matt Hasselbeck under center, the offense becomes much more risk-averse, which favors tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener.

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In fact, Fleener exploded last week for nine catches, 83 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets with Hasselbeck at QB. Gore hasn’t done much for Indianapolis, but his careers have consistently been in the high teens. If that continues, he’s a solid bet each week to find the end zone. With Hasselbeck playing, he’ll be leaned on even more.

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