As the regular season approaches, several injured—or suspended—players will give owners headaches in the draft. The names are tantalizing, but their current situation makes them big risks. Here are the five top players that fit this description, along with their average draft position (ADP), and we will figure out if that ADP is too high, too low, or just right.
All ADP numbers are courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
Arian Foster, RB, Texans (ADP: 58)
There are conflicting reports about Foster’s torn groin, but his ADP has remained fairly high because newer reports are predicting a return in two to four weeks. IF that’s the case, the optimism makes sense. Foster missed three games last season, but was a top-5 RB in that span because his per game production was out of this world.
In 2014 Foster rushed for 4.8 yards per carry, 95 yards per game, and eight touchdowns. He also delivered in the passing game, notching 38 catches and scoring another five times. It’s understandable to see that, and want to draft him even if he’s hurt.
But Foster is always hurt. He’s made it through one full season since 2009, and hasn’t played in more than 13 games in any other year. So even though his talent is obvious, I’m in no rush to grab an injury-prone player, at the position most at risk for injury, while he’ll likely be rushing back from a groin injury, which typically lingers. There’s no guarantee when he is back he will get a full workload right away. No. 58 is just too early. ADP: Too high
LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills (ADP: 18)
McCoy is nursing an injured hamstring, and coach Rex Ryan is reportedly nervous he will miss Week 1. Using the words “cautiously optimistic,” Ryan is starting to mentally prepare the team and fans for the possibility of Anthony “Boobie” Dixon, Bryce Brown, or rookie Karlos Williams in the backfield. Hamstrings are tough injuries, and sometimes nag throughout the year.
For McCoy, that would be bad news. He relies on quickness and jukes to do his damage, and even though he is guaranteed an enormous workload when he plays, his offensive line projects to be one of the NFL’s weaker units. .
The Bills gave up a lot to acquire McCoy, so it’s a safe bet they will not put him at risk for serious injury. They also cut Fred Jackson, the clearest threat to his workload. Even if McCoy misses a game or two, the volume of touches he projects to get will allow him to live up to this ADP. And don’t forget, last season he still piled up 1,319 yards and five touchdowns. His owners will just hope in 2015 he distributes the production more evenly. ADP: Just right
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers (ADP: 26)
Evans’ incredible rookie season was overshadowed by Odell Beckham Jr.’s ridiculous campaign, but it seems fantasy owners did their research and eventually noticed. Evans has missed the whole preseason with hamstring issues, yet he’s still going No. 26 overall, and just outside the top-10 at his position.
There are real concerns. He hasn’t played at all in the preseason, and he hasn’t been able to develop any rapport with rookie QB Jameis Winston in game situations. That could lead Winston to lean on Vincent Jackson, not Evans, in the early weeks of the season. There’s also the issue of hamstring issues lingering into the season, although one would hope sitting out all the preseason games help him on that front.
At the end of the day, Evans’ 2014 production can’t be ignored. 68 catches, 1,051 yards and 12 touchdowns is awesome production for any wide receiver, let alone a player in Year 1 with the worst quarterbacks in the league. Regardless of what you think of Winston’s prospects, he’s an upgrade on the Josh McCown/Mike Glennon travesty they trotted out last year. I would argue a healthy Evans could be ranked higher than No. 11, even at the deepest position in fantasy football, but taking the hammy into account, this is where he should go. ADP: Just right.
Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers (ADP: 74)
Bryant is still the 28th receiver off the board despite getting slapped with a four-game suspension for using marijuana. Believe it or not, he’s still worth the top-30 love. Bryant was incredible last season in a relatively limited role. He made only three starts, but struck for eight touchdowns, and racked up 549 yards receiving as a rookie. At 6’4, 211 pounds he has blazing speed, and the size to outmuscle just about any cornerback in jump ball situations.
Half of Bryant’s touchdowns were longer than 20 yards, another two were from 18 and 19 yards out. One of his scores was a 94-yard strike. He is as explosive as it gets at the wide receiver position, and as he gains more experience, he should become Ben Roethlisberger’s primary red zone target because of his physical advantages. It sucks to have to wait for his production, but he’s a must-start once he is available. ADP: Just right
Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (ADP: 71)
Brady is the single-most talked about man in the NFL these days, and tomorrow we should find out whether he will be suspended for four games or zero. Regardless, Brady’s stock should be higher. He’s currently going behind players like Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo, neither of whom have the upside of Brady once he returns. Brady is not injured, so there’s no reason to expect anything less than excellence once he takes the field in Week 6.
Brady has chucked 33 or more touchdown passes in four of the last five seasons, and thrown single-digit interceptions three times. When TE Rob Gronkowski is healthy, Brady’s production on a weekly basis goes through the roof. Four games of a late-round QB—think Teddy Bridgewater or Carson Palmer—and then 12 weeks of Brady is a much better solution than the rollercoaster right Stafford and Romo put you on. ADP: Too low
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