As training camps approach, it’s smart to begin identifying players who are being taken way above their draft slot. Sometimes players’ values are elevated because of position scarcity; while it’s not a mistake to value players that way, sometimes the price can rise too high. In other cases, there’s simply an overrating of a players’ performance the previous year, an overreaction to a small sample size of production, or various other reasons.
Here are five players whose average draft position (ADP) is just too high.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks
Tight end is going to be a frustrating position for a lot of people who don’t end up with Rob Gronkowski or Graham. That scarcity of reliable TEs has driven Graham’s ADP to No. 27 overall. He’s a spectacular talent, but the price is way too high.
Graham is known to get nicked up and has never played more than 13 games in a season. Graham has never caught 100 passes, and failed to eclipse 1,000 yards in two of the past three seasons. Graham would probably reach those marks if he played more games, but he never has, so owners can’t expect a full slate. He is also joining an offense with a QB that led the NFL in rushing attempts, and one of the most prolific running backs of the decade. Seattle was last in the NFL in pass attempts; Wilson’s improving so they should throw more, but Graham may miss Drew Brees.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans is going one spot after Graham—take him instead.
C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos
Anderson is a fine player, and even an RB1, but his ADP of No. 11 is simply too high. Fans and owners of Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas were no doubt let down in the playoffs last season when Manning’s production plummeted thanks to a quad injury. They took that as the demise of arguably the greatest QB ever, and his prolific passing game.
Anderson should be a very productive back in 2015, but his game logs show a boom-or-bust type player. Six of his eight touchdowns came in Weeks 12 and 15, when he had three scores each. In Week 12 against Buffalo he did score three times, but he ran 21 times for only 58 yards. He is also not much of a factor as a receiver; excluding an eight-catch aberration in Week 9, he only caught 26 passes. That’s not so awesome if you are an owner in PPR or half-PPR leagues.
Simply put, C.J. is awesome, but he is probably not going to return Round 1 value.
Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Gore, 32, has rushed for 1,000-plus yards in four straight seasons and just latched on to one of the NFL’s best offenses, so how could he be a bust? Well, for starters RBs age in dog years, so any season now will be the one in which Gore’s production falls off a cliff. It’s better to be a year early on passing on a high-pick RB than a year late. Gore is going before high-upside plays like Carlos Hyde in San Francisco and Lamar Miller in Miami.
While his floor may be lower than those players, 100-yard games will be hard to come by. He is going to be touchdown-dependent, and last season the Colts led the NFL in pass attempts.
Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers
Allen regressed badly in Year 2 after a very impressive rookie campaign, and the Chargers offense looks like it’s going to the ground. The team drafted Melvin Gordon in Round 1 for a reason, and Allen is competing with a number of similarly talented receivers for looks. Allen led the team with 121 targets in 2014, but only reeled in 71 of them. Three other pass-catchers saw more than 90 looks, so he’s not the only mouth to feed.
Joseph Randle, a starting RB with the NFL’s top offensive line in front of him, and Brandon Marshall, an elite WR who downgraded his QB situation are suddenly going after Allen? Silly.
Seattle Seahawks Defense & Special Teams
This team is a good bet to finish atop the D/ST rankings, but that doesn’t mean you have to spend the No. 64 overall pick on them. There are plenty of options that can not only outscore the Seahawks in fantasy this year, they could blow them away if Seattle doesn’t score TDs.
The Philadelphia Eagles D/ST scored eight touchdowns last season, and they improved this year by adding tackling machine Kiko Alonso. Those ballhawks will get six games vs. Eli Manning, Robert Griffin III, and Tony Romo; none of those passers are cakewalks, but all have battled the turnover bug.
The Houston Texans still have J.J. Watt, and reports are surfacing that 2014 first-round pick Jadeveon Clowney could be back in full force this season.
Seattle may be safer than these two D/STs as well as other appealing options like the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, but it’s not worth the value of players still available in Round 5.
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