As the MLB season wears on, the stats players accumulate begin to hold more significance. Flukes are not easy to sustain for a month and a half of play, while slumps edging into this part of the season may be trends. Each Thursday, SWN will be highlighting some potential trade targets that may be buy-low or sell-high candidates.
This Thursday's focus will be on superstars who haven't flipped the power switch.
Chris Davis, 1B Baltimore Orioles
Chris Davis was last year's home run king, and he also showed vastly improved plate discipline and vision. He hit .286, swatted 53 home runs, and knocked in 138 runs. This season has been nothing like that-he's hitting just .232 with eight home runs, three of which came in one amazing game. His .OBP is down (.356) but not awful, while his slugging has fallen off a cliff from a season ago.
The dips are a bit alarming, since there's been a sizable increase in his ground ball percentage that is parallel to his declining fly ball percentage. He's a big bopper, so the more fly balls the better. He's also seen his line drive percentage go up, which is good. BABIP-wise, he's hitting just .298 which means some bad luck has been present.
Verdict: Be patient with Chris Davis. His K percentage is right in line with last year's, and his walks are up. It's frustrating to see the lack of power, but the home runs will come and his average will rise once the BABIP regresses.
Robinson Cano, 2B Seattle Mariners
Robinson Cano's having a puzzling season. He only has two measly home runs on the season, and has registered an Isolated Power percentage of .092-he hasn't had a season of ISO lower than .202 since 2010.
On the other hand, Cano's hitting .330 with almost no protection in the Mariners lineup, he's striking out less than he ever has, and his .OBP is up over .370. Some might be quick to blame leaving homer-happy Yankee Stadium for the vast expanses of Safeco Field, but I blame an eight percent rise in his ground balls with drops in his fly balls and line drives.
Verdict: Hang on to Cano, unless you really need home runs. I think his power will go up, but not to his Yankee levels. It is a big park and he's going to return to his double-spraying routes while trying to pull the ball less. I expect the .330 average to stay, and for Cano to finish with somewhere in the neighborhood of 17-20 home runs. That's a hell of a second baseman.
Matt Carpenter, 2B/3B St. Louis Cardinals
After his breakout campaign last year, Carpenter had to be pegged for a home bump. He hit 55 doubles and just 11 homers-that is screaming for an adjustment. Well, maybe not. In 238 at-bats this year Carpenter has whacked 16 doubles and one single, lousy home run. One!
It's hard to complain otherwise, since his average is at .307 and he's registered 20 RBIs and scored 40 runs, but the total lack of home runs is certainly aggravating.
Verdict: Keep him at all costs. The one home run thing will lower his value in the eyes of potential takers, and realistically, he's an incredibly valuable player without them. His .OBP is almost .400, he scores a ton of runs in a consistent lineup, and if you're in a points league or Roto league that counts total bases those doubles really help.
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