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Top Fantasy Baseball Busts 2014: Buy Low Advice; Great Trade Candidates or Roster Poison?

By Raimundo Ortiz
Tags: top fantasy busts , fantasy baseball 2014 , miguel cabrera , Bryce Harper , prince fielder , edwin encarnacion , Stephen Strasburg

As we near the end of April, it's almost that time that the fantasy baseball community begins taking players' numbers seriously and identifying whether trends are real or not. A number of players are performing way under their expectations. Chances are you drafted these guys fairly high, and they're a big piece of your currently failing strategy.

Today, we'll identify the biggest flops of April, and whether or not they are buy-low candidates.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Detroit Tigers

Wow...AL MVP for two straight years leading off this list. He deserves to. He will enter play today batting .250 with just two home runs and 13 RBIs. Those numbers have been pumped up too by a three-game stretch in which he's batting .462 with a home run and six of those RBIs.

That said, you most likely drafted Cabrera No. 1 or No. 2 overall, and he's a multi-MVP, Triple Crown winner. Trading him after this tough month is not an option for you. His recent uptick in the last three games are all you need to see.

Verdict: Buy Low. If someone in your league is ready to trade him after this month, then he/she needs to learn more about fantasy baseball. Buy him low, buy him high, get Miggy any way you can.

Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals

Bryce is a curious case. He's shown signs at the tender age of 21 that he's a premier power hitter in the making. However, he's never hit over .275 in the majors, and his contact percentage has dropped from last season.

His BABIP is actually quite high (.356) so the .272 batting average is alarming, while his walks are dropping and his strikeouts are trending up. His home run to fly ball ratio is unsustainably low, but unless this is a keeper league doubts about Harper as an elite fantasy option in 2014 are creeping into my mind.

Verdict: Leave him alone. Harper may explode this year, but there are red flags galore here. If this is a re-draft league, you're going to have to overpay for one of the sexiest names in fantasy, when in reality he may just be a .275, 20-25 home run player in 2014.

Prince Fielder, 1B, Texas Rangers

Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays

These guys are grouped together because they are both highly drafted corner infielders in supposedly phenomenal environments. Let's start with Prince (.200, 2 HR, 7 RBI), who showed decline last year that hasn't been corrected. He hit 25 homers in 2013, the first time in six seasons he dipped below 30. He's also played in 161 games or more every year since 2009.

Prince is a hefty fella, and it looks like wear and tear might be getting to him. The line drives are becoming scarce and his power looks sapped. He might be in a great hitter's park, in a stacked lineup, but I fear he's no longer the anchor.


As for Edwin, his batting average woes are a little more predictable. He improved the past two years as his power surged, but you likely knew the risk of a .250ish season existed. His skyrocketing strikeout percentage is troubling, but you drafted him for power. Even Adam Dunn swats 30-40 bombs a year with an awful average and endless Ks.


Verdict: Leave Prince Fielder alone, buy low on Edwin Encarnacion. Sadly, I think Prince's days as a Top 25 player have passed. Edwin, on the other hand, could just be in a slump and is shaking off some injury issues. Once those pass, he'll go on a home run tear.

Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals

A trendy Cy Young pick in the preseason for people bored of choosing Clayton Kershaw, Strasburg's been frustrating owners with a 2013 Matt Cain-like start to this year. He's striking out batters at the highest rate of his career, but sits with an ERA of 5.33 after four starts. His home run rate has risen, but not dramatically, while his walks are of more concern (3.33 BB/9).

The good news is two-fold. No.1, as already stated he's making batters miss like crazy and hasn't lost any of his heat. No. 2, his FIP is more Strasburgian (2.60).

Verdict: Buy low. "Strasburg's just been unlucky," said his .361 BABIP. The Ks and advanced metrics will give you the real picture. He's on an excellent team that will eventually get him some runs and wins. Snag him now...you're paying for the future not the past.

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