The 2019 national champion Virginia Cavaliers find themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble in 2024, and their chances to hear their name called on Selection Sunday come down to the ACC Tournament.
Head coach Tony Bennett and his team picked up some big wins this season, beating fast-rising Florida on a neutral court and earning a road win over Clemson in February to bolster their resume.
Add in home wins over a top-25 Texas A&M and a fellow bubble squad in Wake Forest, and the Cavaliers have overcome some blowout losses to get themselves into the picture for the NCAA Tournament.
Perhaps no program is tougher to predict in March. We've seen Virginia lose to a 16 seed and win the national championship the next year. Last year, the Hoos were a trendy pick to lose a 4/13 matchup to Furman, and they did lose thanks to a late-game meltdown.
Win or lose, the pack-line defense and Virginia's stingy style of play make them a terrifying draw for a team with any questions whatsoever at guard.
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NCAA Tournament Resume: Virginia Cavaliers
KenPom Ranking: 67
NET Ranking: 51
Record vs. Quads: 2-6 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2, 8-0 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Things look pretty decent for the Cavaliers when you look at their quad breakdown. Undefeated against the bottom two with more games against the third than the fourth. Comfortably over .500 against the second, and a pair of wins in the first.
What's badly hurting Virginia in the metrics is the margin of victory in those losses in the top two. Of the six quad 1 losses, only one came by less than 20 points, and a 22-point loss to Notre Dame and 16-point loss to NC State in quad 2 don't help either.
Far from the power house this program was a few years ago, Bennett and his players objectively did not do enough in the regular season to earn an at-large bid.
Those blowout losses in their big opportunities will look very bad to the committee, and the metrics and eye test both have this team as not being tournament caliber.
Add all of that together, and you get a recipe for needing a huge showing in Washington D.C. at this week's ACC tournament.
But despite those rankings, the metrics, and the blowouts in those big opportunities, Virginia still finds itself on the right side of the bubble in most projections.
ESPN's Bracketology has the Cavaliers needing just one win over a bottom-feeder on Thursday in the conference tournament to secure their invitation.
Maybe that isn't reflective of this team's overall quality, but it's fair to assume the experts and committee might give this coach and program some leeway given their pedigree. Regardless, the Hoos could end all questions with a win Thursday followed by a win over Duke on Friday.
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