The Dodgers have the best statistical one-two punch atop their rotation, but face a very tough choice between Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke for their Game 1 starter in the NLDS.
Kershaw, a three-time Cy Young winner and 2014 National League MVP, seems like the easy choice at first glance. He became the first Dodger since Sandy Koufax to notch 300 strikeouts in a season, struck out more than 11 batters per nine for the year, and could win his third consecutive Cy Young. Even if Greinke has outperformed him in certain categories, Kershaw seems like a no-brainer.
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Except, recent history has to give manager Don Mattingly pause. For all of Kershaw's regular season excellence, his postseason resume is gruesome. In the 2013 NLCS Kershaw was knocked around by St. Louis for seven earned runs in two starts. Last season, the Cardinals got to him again, lighting him up for 11 earned runs in 12.2 innings. It's enough to wonder about letting Greinke, who pitched to a microscopic 1.66 ERA this year, go first.
Greinke's no slouch. He took home the AL Cy Young in 2009 and is a solid bet to win it over Kershaw this year. Greinke posted a lower ERA and WHIP than Kershaw, and possesses a postseason ERA (3.63) a run and a half lower than Kershaw's (5.12).
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Look a little deeper, however, and there are some signs that looking away from Kershaw in Game 1 is an overreaction. 2009 was Kershaw's first postseason as a starter. He was fine in his first start (Game 2 of the NLDS), bad in his second (Game 1 of the NLCS), and then gave up two runs as a reliever.
The Dodgers returned to the postseason in 2013, and Kershaw dominated the Braves in the NLDS. He threw 13 innings of one-run ball with 18 strikeouts and just four walks.
He ran into trouble in the NLCS vs. the Cardinals, and then struggled vs. St. Louis again last year. Basically, Kershaw has some demons to exorcise against the Redbirds. He does not struggle as badly in the playoffs as the numbers indicate on the surface though. His ERA is inflated by some bad performances, which hide several gems.
Greinke has been great, but Kershaw is the heart and soul of the Dodgers, and he's the answer to Jacob DeGrom of the Mets in Game 1.
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