Clayton Kershaw (12-6, 2.18 ERA) put together another otherworldly performance Wednesday night vs. Giants, tossing his third complete game of the year and striking out 15 batters. The Giants were in second place coming into this game, and trying to avoid a sweep.
Kershaw has won the NL Cy Young award three times in the last four seasons; he finished second the only year he didn’t bring it home, and he looks like a strong bet to win it again this year. His 2014 campaign was so dominant, that he actually brought home the NL MVP award as well.
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Kershaw is making a hell of a case once again, but he’s facing stiff competition in a banner year for NL pitching. Here are six pitchers who are gunning for Kershaw’s crown, and their case to be the next Cy Young.
Zack Greinke, Dodgers, 15-3, 1.59 ERA
Of all the contenders, Kershaw’s teammate looks like he has the best resume to unseat him. Greinke, a former AL Cy Young winner, has the lowest ERA on this list, and a 0.84 WHIP to go with it. He has more wins than Kershaw, fewer losses, and started the 2015 All-Star Game.
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Some of the advanced metrics favor Kershaw; for instance, Greinke’s FIP, which removes defense from the equation, is 2.62, while Kershaw’s is 2.02. That has contributed to a higher WAR for Kershaw (7.1) than Greinke (5.3). But Cy Young voters tend not to account for the metrics so much, and on its face, Greinke’s performance to this point looks superior. Chances To Defeat Kershaw: Great
Jake Arrieta, Cubs, 17-6, 2.11 ERA
This will drive statheads crazy, but Arrieta’s best argument is wins. Sabermetrics-worshippers will turn blue telling the non-believers that wins are a dependent statistic, and shouldn’t weigh heavily, if at all, in these awards. But they do, and Arrieta has 17 of them. And hey, Arrieta’s got a lot of other stuff going for him too.
How about that no-hitter? His no-no of—wait for it…the Dodgers—was dominant. He polished them off by striking out the side. His 2.11 ERA is less than Kershaw’s, he’s striking out more batters per nine than Greinke is, and his FIP and xFIP rate better than Greinke as well. Arrieta does get dinged just a bit for walking more than two per nine. Chances To Defeat Kershaw: Good
Max Scherzer, Nationals, 11-11, 2.89 ERA
Scherzer looked like he’d win this easily earlier this year when he went 7-3 over his first 10 starts , striking out 85, walking 10 and never allowing more than two runs in that span. He’s second only among this group of elites in strikeout rate to Kershaw, and setting down more than 10 batters per nine. In addition, he is walking only 1.27 hitters per nine, demonstrating the most command. Scherzer’s name has receded from the pack a bit because Washington has been disappointing as a team, but his individual performance in 2015 has been nothing short of spectacular. Scherzer also has a no-no this season.
To pick a flaw in Scherzer’s candidacy, he gives up more long balls than the rest of this crew. His 1.03 HR/9 is much higher than any of the other six pitchers. Chances To Defeat Kershaw: Poor
Jacob DeGrom, Mets, 12-7, 2.32 ERA
DeGrom is like a middle ground of all these excellent pitchers. He doesn’t have the name value of Bumgarner, the low walk rate of Scherzer, or the advanced credentials of Kershaw, but he is excellent across the board. His 2.32 ERA sparkles, his 12-7 record could easily be much higher with a pinch of run support, but right now a string of hot starts will put him very much in the mix.
He seems a tad bit homer-prone, and and smidge lucky (.252 BABIP) for this discussion, but he should get a few more wins with the new-look Mets offense mashing so he will be in it ‘til the end. Chances To Defeat Kershaw: Fair
Madison Bumgarner, Giants, 16-7, 2.96 ERA
Bumgarner’s ERA isn’t as glossy as the rest of these pitchers, but over the last month he’s been as good as anyone, going 5-0 with a 1.43 ERA, 53 strikeouts, and just four free passes. Bumgarner’s also had a bit less luck than the names that come before him as evidenced by his .290 BABIP. Home runs have occasionally been an issue as well, with his 0.84 HR/9 checking in only behind Scherzer’s mark.
Also, like Scherzer, Bumgarner’s case may be hurt by his team not being in first place. He’s clearly behind the top dogs at this point, but with a month left Bumgarner can close the gap at the rate he’s going. And for what it’s worth, Bumgarner has added far more value than any of these players with his hitting. Chances To Defeat Kershaw: Poor
Gerrit Cole, Pirates, 15-8, 2.64 ERA
Cole’s strikeout rate and walk rate are a bit below and above, respectively, where the other pitchers’ marks are in those categories, but his body of work is impeccable. Only two names on this list have more wins, only one has a better HR/9 mark, and he has posted the highest BABIP (.313) of the bunch. Chances To Defeat Kershaw: Poor
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 12-6, 2.18 ERA
Kershaw is the top dog, based not only on his previous pedigree, but on his NL-high K/9 rate (11.64), his 12-6 record, and his top-ranked 7.4 WAR. That’s two-tenths of a win behind Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, the frontrunner for NL MVP, and ahead of Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt, Reds 1B Joey Votto, and every other MVP contender that’s an everyday player.
Greinke has a great shot at unseating him if voters are suffering from Kershaw fatigue, but at the moment its hard to envision him losing his crown.
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