The San Diego Padres makeover this offseason has been a disaster. After a slew of trades by new general manager A.J. Preller netted them outfielders Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Matt Kemp, closer Craig Kimbrel, all on top of the signing of right-handed starter James Shields, the Padres haven’t improved. At 41-49, good for fourth place in the National League West, the Padres are expected to be dealing.
These are the names teams will want, and SWN will figure out if they are likely, unlikely or neutral in their chances.
Justin Upton
After a hot start to the season the streaky Upton has cratered in June and July hitting .196 and .118 respectively with just two home runs over that 36-game span. Overall his numbers have remained respectable, but he’s a minus defensively, and because of his power he will command a ton of money to re-sign this offseason when he becomes a free agent.
San Diego would probably need a decent haul back—even if he’s a rental—and for that to happen, Upton will have to get off to a hot start right after the All-Star Break ends. Upton is one of their more attractive pieces, but it’s unlikely the Padres get enough in return for him, so their chances are neutral.
Matt Kemp
Kemp has been an unmitigated disaster, costing the Padres almost 14 runs defensively, and slashing .250/.291/.352, all significant dips from last year. Kemp’s power has been totally sapped by PETCO Park, with six of his eight home runs coming on the road. The Dodgers removed him from center field last year, and even in a corner outfield role with the Padres he’s hurting the team.
Kemp will also be making north of $21 million all the way through 2019. The only chance he has of moving is if an American League club is desperate for a designated hitter, and believes Kemp can be revitalized by moving to a hitter-friendly park. Even so, the Padres will assuredly have to eat a significant portion of his contract. Haggling over Kemp’s money may cost the Padres a deal, so their chances are neutral.
Craig Kimbrel
Kimbrel was the league’s most consistent closer heading into the season, but 2015 has been the pits for him. He hasn’t been terrible—he’s striking out nearly 13 batters per nine and his FIP is below a 3.00, but he has not been the force fans are used to, and he’s on a bad team.
Plenty of clubs need bullpen help, and even teams that don’t would leap at the chance to pay a player with Kimbrel’s pedigree. He might be the Padre with the greatest chance of moving, so SWN pegs him as likely.
James Shields
Shields hasn’t let the losing affect him in San Diego, posting a 7-3 record with a 4.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Those are not awful numbers, but they’re not numbers that scream ace. And make no mistake, after this season Shields will be paid like an ace through 2018, when he will make $21 million a season.
Shields’ K/9 has spiked this season, but so has his walk rate and the trade-off seems to be negative.2015 could be the first time in five seasons he posts an ERA more than 4.00, and coupled with his bloated contract he’s unlikely to change uniforms.
Andrew Cashner
Cashner’s season has been disappointing, but there are underlying factors that the Padres can sell teams on. His FIP (3.86) is more attractive than his ERA (4.10) and FIP is widely considered a better indicator of future performance. In San Diego that’s especially true since they have one of MLB’s worst defenses. Cashner’s K rate is up slightly from the previous two seasons, while his BABIP is unusually high and due for positive regression.
Cashner, 28, has also seen a slight uptick in his velocity. At 28 years old he’s smack in the middle of his physical prime, and he could come at a discount in free agency next year thanks to his shoddy record and bloated ERA. Perhaps with a better defense behind him, Cashner’s numbers may normalize on another roster? Still, he’s unlikely to be moved.
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