NCAA Tournament Picks: Predicting All of the Thursday Sweet 16 Games

NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament - Second Round - Northwestern v UConn
(Photo : (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)) NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 24: Alex Karaban #11, Donovan Clingan #32, and Hassan Diarra #10 of the Connecticut Huskies react during the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats in the second round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Barclays Center on March 24, 2024 in New York City.

The rounds of 64 and 32 have come and gone, and we are left with a Sweet 16 field in the men's NCAA Tournament that features just one double-digit seed and a whole lot of firepower in terms of current quality and historically elite programs. 

All eight number one and two seeds remain, and 11-seed NC State is left as the lone hope for a true Cinderella story as the march toward Phoenix for the Final Four continues.

As we anxiously await these fantastic matchups, here are our official predictions for tonight's four Sweet 16 games.

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(6) Clemson vs. (2) Arizona

Time: 7:09 PM EST, Thursday
Channel: CBS
How They Got Here: Clemson defeated New Mexico, Baylor. Arizona defeated Long Beach State, Dayton.
Odds: Arizona -7.5

Arizona has taken care of business so far, handling Long Beach State and winning easily against a Dayton squad that is likely roughly of the same caliber as this Clemson squad.

The Tigers are peaking at the right time, though, and for that reason Brad Brownell and his crew could be a tough out for the Wildcats. Clemson is led by star big man P.J. Hall, whose versatility and touch around the rim make him a huge factor in any game. Syracuse transfer Joe Girard adds strong shooting touch, and Chase Hunter is an athletic guard who can score in a number of ways.

The big problem for Clemson in this one lies in the fact that Arizona, at least on paper, has answers for each and every one of Clemson's strengths.

The Wildcats will rely on Oumar Ballo to limit Hall's impact, and they should have good faith in him doing so, as he just did a good job against Dayton's DaRon Holmes, who is very arguably a better and more dynamic offensive presence than Hall. 

Love is a dynamic scorer and a willing defender of the other team's guards, and the Wildcats in general do a very solid job on the defensive end both down low and against the three-ball. 

If Clemson is to win, it will be because Brownell did a fantastic job of creating opportunities for his guys with creative sets and looks. That formula worked very well against Baylor, but Arizona presents a whole extra level of a challenge defensively.

The Pick: 75-66, Arizona

Read More: East Region Sweet 16 Picks: Will UConn, Iowa State Continue to Serve up Chalk Against SDSU, Illinois?

(5) San Diego State vs. (1) Connecticut

Time: 7:39 PM EST, Thursday
Channel: TBS
How They Got Here: SDSU defeated UAB, Yale. Connecticut defeated Stetson, Northwestern.
Odds: Connecticut -11.5

This is a rematch of last year's National Championship game, where UConn made quick work of the Aztecs on their way to the championship and a 76-59 win. 

Is there much reason to expect a different result this year? While the Huskies lost a lot from last year's team, transfers Cam Spencer and Tristen Newton have proven to make this offense even more dynamic in the backcourt than they were last year, and Donovan Clingan has emerged as a truly elite center and likely the nation's most underrated player.

The Huskies are a full-on juggernaut, and it's truly difficult to see them losing a game to anyone in this tournament, even with every other one and two seed still alive.

On the San Diego State side of things, the Aztecs have been pushed to the next level by the growth of super star Jaedon LeDee, who averages 21.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. The Aztecs have counted on him being the best player on the floor in all of their games this season, and he has delivered upon that trust.

While LeDee truly is fantastic, he will probably be the third best player in this game barring something unforeseen. The Aztecs have no other players who average double figures, and if they're going to pull the upset, they'll need an above-average game from LeDee and two of Reese Waters, Lamont Butler, and Micah Parrish to step up closer to LeDee's scoring level.

The Pick: 81-68, UConn

Read More: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Picks: Purdue, Gonzaga and Tennessee, Creighton Square off in Huge Showdowns

(4) Alabama vs. (1) North Carolina

Time: 9:39 PM EST, Thursday
Channel: CBS
How They Got Here: Alabama defeated Charleston, Grand Canyon. North Carolina defeated Wagner, Michigan State.
Odds: North Carolina -4.5

Alabama is absolutely a serious threat to knock off the Tar Heels on Thursday night. Carolina looked like a defensive powerhouse in December and January, but that aspect of their game has regressed a little bit since.

That makes them vulnerable against the Crimson Tide, who under coach Nate Oats run an offense that is both lightning fast and wildly efficient, playing at the 8th-fastest pace in the country per KenPom while almost exclusively shooting three-pointers and twos at the basket.

Fortunately for the Heels, they have center Armando Bacot down low to affect the quality of those close-in looks, and his defensive presence will be one of the big keys to this game.

The Heels will welcome the fast pace, though, as it will only serve to give their offense more cracks at Alabama's much more vulnerable defense. This could be a huge game for UNC's skill players, as ACC Player of the Year R.J. Davis should get plenty of good looks while sharpshooter Cormac Ryan could often find himself wide open in transition. 

It will be interesting to see how the Heels opt to defend star Alabama guard Mark Sears in this one, as this iteration of Carolina lacks the type of lockdown on-ball defender that Leaky Black provided in years past. 

Regardless, we're trusting Hubert Davis in this one to find ways to come up with enough stops to allow Carolina's own offensive talent to outpace the Crimson Tide's.

The Pick: 88-81, North Carolina

(3) Illinois vs. (2) Iowa State

Time: 10:09 PM EST, Thursday
Channel: TBS
How They Got Here: Illinois defeated Morehead State, Duquesne. Iowa State defeated South Dakota State, Washington State.
Odds: Iowa State -1.5

This game promises to be an exciting clash of styles, as Illinois simply can not stop scoring. The Illini had no trouble against a fantastic Duquesne defensive unit, blowing past the Dukes to set up this matchup with Iowa State.

The Cyclones, for their part, are one of the very best defensive units in the nation, and their physical style makes scoring the ball a nightmare for their opponents.

According to KenPom, this is the best offense in the country against the best defense in the country. Good luck predicting which team will win out when Illinois has the ball. It truly could go either way.

When Iowa State has the ball, though, they might have a slight advantage as a top-50 offense against the 92nd-ranked Illini defense. If Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey get hot from the floor, the Cyclones could win this one going away. 

Illinois has not been tested by an opposing offense yet this tournament, but we saw Iowa State overcome a very strong Washington State defense in the last round. 

Because of that, I think you have to give a very slight edge to the Cyclones heading into this one, but this is going to be must-see television regardless of the winner.

The Pick: 74-73, Iowa State

Read More: South Region Sweet 16 Picks: Houston Faces Duke, NC State Looks to Continue Run Against Marquette

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