The top pick in the NFL Draft is a precious asset for teams at the bottom of the standings, especially ones that need a quarterback. The Titans are currently in the lead for the No. 1 pick, but they won’t be looking for a passer after drafting Marcus Mariota No. 2 overall in 2015. Here’s a look at the rest of the contenders for the No. 1 spot.
These are the SWN rankings of these teams’ likelihood to pick first.
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6. 49ers (4-10)
The 49ers have the highest strength of schedule of the six contenders for the top pick, which is unfortunate for them because it means they’ve not only faced rougher competition than their peers, but they’re pushed down in the draft order. With Blaine Gabbert under center they’ve actually improved, unexpectedly.
Their remaining games are at the Lions, and home for the Rams. Both are winnable, so with an outside chance at six wins, and too high a strength of schedule even if they lose, they’re likely to be outside the Top 5.
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5. Cowboys (4-10)
The Cowboys have two winnable games on the slate to close 2015 at the Bills, and home for the Redskins, who may have the NFC East clinched already. They also have a .551 strength of schedule, which is only topped among this group of six by San Francisco. It’s a tough break fro America’s Team, who slogged through injuries to their best two players, and couldn’t capitalize on the weakest NFC East in years. They also couldn’t lose enough to secure an amazing pick.
Still, even with Kellen Moore taking snaps, expect Dallas to split one of their next two games and stay in this range.
4. Ravens (4-10)
With games vs. the Steelers and Bengals on the schedule, it looks very unlikely that Baltimore will win again in 2015. That said, NFC North divisional games tend to produce low-scoring, wonky outcomes and eventually the Ravens will put Ryan Mallett in at QB. He’s no great shakes, but he’s better than Jimmy Clausen.
There are young players on the Ravens trying to prove themselves, and there’s pride in playing spoiler, especially for the Steelers who are in a dead heat with the Jets, Chiefs and possibly Broncos for a playoff spot. It’s enough to worry slightly that they’ll win, but it’s more likely they’re too outgunned no matter how hard they play.
3. Chargers (4-11)
This is cheating, since the Bolts played on Thursday and lost in Oakland. They have just one game left, vs. the Broncos in Denver, which will still have meaning to them regardless of this week’s outcomes. The Chargers are a dead team walking, and wikl finish 4-12.
2. Titans (3-11)
Tennessee has two games left vs. the Texans and Colts, both of which are winnable thanks to the other teams’ equally terrible QB situation. It’s unclear if Marcus Mariota will be shut down for the season, and if he is the Titans’ chances of winning either of these games become remote.
But if Mariota plays, they have an excellent chance to surprise one of Indianapolis and Houston, especially if the Texans beat the Titans this week and knock the Colts out of the playoff picture.
1. Browns (3-11)
The Browns have to go to Kansas City this week, and then host the Steelers, two teams who must win to make the playoffs. With such superior teams being actually motivated, the Browns will need a miracle to pull off an upset. They are behind the Titans right now, but by the time Week 17 is over, the Browns have a better chance of being 3-13 than the Titans do.
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