Chris Davis led MLB in home runs last year with 47 home runs, and now wants $200 million on his next contract. The Orioles offered him seven years and “approximately” $150 million early in the week, and eventually pulled the deal off the table.
Power is certainly at a premium these days with the crackdown on performance enhancing drugs serving to sap many players’ home run power. But even though Davis is a premier home run hitter, $200 million is excessive. Here’s why.
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Strikeouts!
If someone wanted to poke holes in Davis’ resume, the easiest place to start is his penchant for striking out. Davis whiffed 208 times last year, and actually slightly improved his strikeout percentage. The strikeouts are never going away; Davis has never struck out in fewer than 27.8 percent of his at-bats, and he’s been above 30 percent for the last two seasons. It’s a major issue, and one that will likely preclude him from his lofty price point.
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Historically, He Isn’t Great vs. Left-Handers
Last season was an anomaly for Davis, who batted .268 vs. southpaws and .258 vs. right-handers. Throw away 2014, which was an absolute disaster for Davis (which will be touched on later). In 2013, when he led the league in home runs with 53, and he hit .316 vs. righties with 40 home runs and .235 with 10 homers vs. lefties. For his career, Davis is just a .238 hitter against left-handers.
Committing $200 million to a one-dimensional hitter is risky business – just ask the Phillies how much they love their long-term pact with Ryan Howard.
Davis’s Batting Average Fluctuates Wildly
Last season Davis hit .268, and in 2013 he batted .286. He’s also one year removed from hitting .196 over the course of a full season, and posting a 0.8 WAR per Fangraphs. In 2010 with the Rangers, he hit .192 over a 45-game sample. This is a distinct possibility with Davis, and the likelihood is heightened because of his brutal strikeout numbers.
BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a fickle beast, and it was kind to Davis in 2015. When his BABIP was .242 the year before, he was a sub-.200 hitter. More often than not, Davis has been in the .260ish range, which is more than acceptable for a player with his kind of pop. However, that ugly 2014 can’t be ignored when a seven-year deal is in play.
Defensively, Davis Is A Train Wreck
Davis plays three positions, and not a single one well. Davis has never posted a positive defensive rating in his career, and at his peak he was costing his team double-digit runs with his glove. So why can’t the Orioles – or an interested AL team – DH him? They could, but who wants a $200 million DH?
The Orioles offered Davis a contract comparable to Nelson Cruz’s, which makes sense since they are very similar players, and tacked on three additional years because of Davis’ favorable age. At $200 million, Davis would be making about double Cruz’s average annual salary, when Cruz was worth only one fewer win based on WAR. When viewed through that lens, Davis’ demands are an outrageous ask.
There Are Cheaper Sources Of Power
Davis is without question the best power hitter on the market, but he’s not the ONLY power hitter available. Pedro Alvarez, two years younger than Davis, socked 27 homers in 2015, and hit 30 and 36 respectively in 2012 and 2013.
Justin Upton will not cost $200 million or more, and can be relied upon to hit upward of 25 home runs (three straight seasons of 26 or more) with a .250 batting average as his floor. Yoenis Cespedes banged 31 homers in 2015, carrying the Mets to the playoffs, and added 10.6 runs with his glove in the outfield. Jason Heyward is three years younger than Davis, and posted a better WAR by a slight margin. Heyward is now three years removed from his 27-home run season, but he was worth 16 runs in the Cardinals’ outfield, and had a nearly identical on-base percentage to Davis’ with 34 fewer home runs.
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