The thinking in the NBA is often that the most star-powered teams take home the title. That type of thinking can take hold when three stars – LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh – team up and go to the NBA Finals for five straight years.
Those Heat were beaten in 2014 by the San Antonio Spurs, however, and last season’s Cavaliers were smoked by the Warriors, two teams that had talent, but more importantly, chemistry.
LeBron’s Cavaliers are once again the favorites to win the title. That’s mostly because James is still the best player in the world, and he does have All-Stars at his disposal. Here is a look at the top-5 teams in terms of title odds, and then two squads that can give these teams fits.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (+280)
Yeah LeBron’s here, but the Cavaliers’ biggest problems haven’t been addressed. For one, their offense isn’t very cohesive for all its explosiveness. Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, James, and J.R. Smith all need the ball to be at their best, and there’s still only one to go around.
Second, the Cavs’ defense improved in the Finals, but only when Irving and Love bowed out due to injuries. They’ll score more with their big guns back, but defensively they’ll struggle again. There’s enough talent to win, but the odds aren’t good enough to bet it.
2. San Antonio Spurs (+400)
The Spurs always have a chance, and they did add the top free agent on the market in LaMarcus Aldridge, but age is a real question mark. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili all showed signs of age and Aldridge, while extremely talented, is going to be a work in progress to integrate into the Spurs’ pass-heavy offense.
This team is still very reliant on scoring from Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, two players who are prone to cold shooting at times. Aldridge may make them a juggernaut, or he could be a slight disruption to a well-oiled machine.
3. Golden State Warriors (+500)
It’s a little disrespectful for the Warriors to bring back essentially the same team that won the title last year, and spent all season in first place, and have the third-best odds. Stephen Curry is the best shooter of all-time, and the reigning MVP, while their small-ball lineups are all intact.
The knock on them is their reliance on Curry. For all the talent surrounding him, this team has been below-average with many Curry-less lineups, and once upon a time Curry was considered a fragile player. For now though he’s healthy, and the Warriors should really be the odds-on favorites.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (+800)
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook can be considered two of the top-5 players in the world. Serge Ibaka is a world-class shot-blocker, and he can also make 3-pointers. OKC’s biggest problem in the past has been predictability in crunch time, and new coach Billy Donovan was brought in to solve that. These are the most rewarding odds of the top-5.
5. Los Angeles Clippers (+1,300)
The Clippers also kept their core intact, and Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan can be downright frightening when everything clicks. Now, the Clippers have added an ex-champion in Paul Pierce, and bolstered their bench, which was comically thin at some points last season. Athletically they’re still poorly matched on the perimeter, but few teams can handle this frontcourt.
SLEEPER 1: Miami Heat (+4,000)
The Heat aren’t particularly deep, but their starting lineup might be the most complete in the NBA No. 1-through No. 5. Dwyane Wade is in a contract year, so expect him to be healthier than usual. Chris Bosh is back as well, so they’ll be a force defensively in the post when he’s paired with the underrated Hassan Whiteside. And don’t forget, PG Goran Dragic will be there all year, and he’s had a full preseason to figure out how to co-exist with Wade.
The bench is thin for sure, but if they can get some surprises, they’ll make a strong run at the No. 1 seed in the East.
SLEEPER 2: Chicago Bulls (+4,000)
Believe it or not, this isn’t going to be about how important Derrick Rose is to their title hopes. At this point, the Bulls have to go into these seasons expecting little from the former MVP. For years Tom Thibodeau made the Bulls a defensive stalwart, but now they have offensive-mined Fred Hoibert running the show, and one of the NBA’s deepest rosters.
Hoiberg’s effect can’t be predicted; we’ll just have to see where it goes. Their roster rolls 12-deep though in quality. Forward Bobby Portis may be one of the best rookies of the season, and he’s buried behind three –and maybe four depending how Nikola Mirotic is viewed – other big men.
Jimmy Butler is one of the best shooting guards in basketball, and whether Rose wants to admit it or not, he’s the best player on offense. Joakim Noah needs to stay healthy for a title to be realistic, but injuries won’t cripple them like past versions of the Bulls.
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