Survivor pools are fun, and they seem easy, but it’s actually very hard to last longer than a few weeks. For those who have never done a survivor pool, the rules are simple. Each week you pick one team to win outright—usually, survivor pools do not use spreads. Once you’ve picked that team, they’re unavailable to you for the rest of the season.

These are three picks that will keep you alive.

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*Home teams are in caps.

The Sure Thing: COLTS over Saints

Don’t be fooled by New Orleans’ wipeout of the Falcons, because that was a “great spot” for them in gambling parlance. The Saints were at home, desperate, with Drew Brees healing up from his shoulder injury. The Falcons were unbeaten, so they didn’t NEED the game, and had won most of their games by the skin of their teeth. The upset could be spotted a mile away.

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The Saints still have a shoddy defense, and Colts QB Andrew Luck is back. He shredded the Patriots in a loss last week, and will be home again for the NFL’s worst pass D. Colts win it going away.

The Next Best Thing: Falcons over TITANS

This week is tricky with three undefeated teams on bye. Trusting road favorites is usually dicey, but Atlanta has had extra rest coming off a Thursday game, and got humbled by the Saints. Road teams coming off a road loss historically shape up for the second tilt, and the Titans’ early promise is quickly withering away.

They managed just 14 points two weeks ago vs. the Bills, and then were shellacked this past Sunday by the Dolphins. That’s not good, and neither is having rookie QB Marcus Mariota banged up. Their running game is in shambles, and more importantly, their defense is not good at all. This season they’ve been strong vs. No. 1 receivers, but Julio Jones defies statistics.

If You Want To Get Cute: CHARGERS over Raiders

This isn’t as easy as it seems. The Raiders aren’t that bad. At 2-3, two of their losses were against unbeaten teams (Bengals, Broncos) and the third was a road loss to the surging Bears. The Chargers, however, have been stunning on offense of late with Philip Rivers averaging more than 400 yards through the air in his last three games. AFC West divisional games get hairy, but the Chargers have enough firepower to outscore Oakland.

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