Survivor pools are fun, and they seem easy, but it’s actually very hard to last longer than a few weeks. For those who have never done a survivor pool, the rules are simple. Each week you pick one team to win outright—usually, survivor pools do not use spreads. Once you’ve picked that team, they’re unavailable to you for the rest of the season.
Week 1 tends to claim the most victims, since there’s no information to go on besides injury reports, and whatever can be gleaned from the preseason. Here are the three best choices for you to stay alive in Week 1.
*All home teams in caps.
The Sure Thing: Packers over BEARS
Some might worry that using the Packers so early in the year will hurt them down the road, when they’ve used up some good choices. Yes, it may stink to not have Green Bay later in the season, but using them now affords you a greater chance to even be in that position.
Remember, we do not know much about the 2015 versions of these teams, so the teams with more known commodities the better. The Packers have arguably the best quarterback in football, Aaron Rodgers. The Packers don’t have WR Jordy Nelson this year, but they have a returning Pro Bowl running back in Eddie Lacy, a top-flight receiver in Randall Cobb, and a consistently excellent offense.
The Bears defense was literally the worst in the NFL last season, and even though John Fox should improve it, getting pressure on Rodgers won’t be easy. Conversely, two of Jay Cutler’s best receivers are a tight end and a running back, and offensive guru Marc Trestman is gone from their sideline. It doesn’t get safer than this, even if Green Bay is on the road.
The Next Best Thing: Dolphins over REDSKINS
This Week 1 is tricky because some of the matchups that look lopsided have the favored team wearing road uniforms. This is one of those games. Miami figures to have a potent pass rush with LB Cameron Wake returning, and DT Ndamukong Suh in the fold. But remember, we haven’t seen the Dolphins yet!
The new pieces may need time to gel, Suh might get thrown out for stepping on someone’s head, or Kirk Cousins might have the game of his life for Washington.
If you’re a ‘Skins fan, you obviously dislike that the quarterback situation is a mammoth dumpster fire, that you signed a top pass-rusher (Junior Galette) who is out for the season before Week 1, and your No. 1 WR, DeSean Jackson, missed the whole preseason with a bum shoulder. These are all reasons to be confident in Miami this week. They SHOULD win, comfortably, and per Pregame.com 78 percent of the moneyline action is on them.
But again, the Packers are safer.
If You Want To Get Cute: JETS over Browns
My advice is to avoid being cute on Week 1, but at least in this case the pick is a home team. The Jets’ defense should be stellar, even without 2014 Rookie of the Year DT Sheldon Richardson suited up. The secondary is healthy, and once again includes CBs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. DE Muhammad Wilkerson is back, and the loss of Richardson should be mitigated by rookie DT Leonard Williams.
It’s hard to see how Cleveland scores points this week. They have zero quality receivers, Josh McCown at QB, and their best weapon is probably Isaiah Crowell, who will be running against the 11th best rush defense in 2014. Expect that to improve with the Jets’ DBs more capable of handling one-on-one.
The issue here is the Jets’ offense. It’s their first real game with new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is a mixed bag at QB. Last year the Browns’ pass defense was exceptional; they were No. 2 in the NFL per FootballOutsiders.com. A high-powered secondary could wreak turnover havoc on Fitzy, and put the Jets’ D in bad positions.
Gang Green should be able to run on the Browns in theory, since they were the second-worst run defense a year ago, but they signed Randy Starks and drafted DT Danny Shelton to shore that up. Those guys aren’t likely to fix the run woes from the get-go, so the Jets should be able to get this done.
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