Fantasy owners need to hit late on at least one running back late in drafts to ensure success, mostly because RB has the highest rate of turnover in fantasy football. They take the biggest pounding, and are often the quickest to lose their starting jobs because of fumbles, or other players outperforming them. RB has become a devalued position in real football in terms of job security; that’s made them the most valuable commodity in fantasy because of the scarcity in quality.
That’s why this article exists. Here are five RBs outside the top-36 that have a chance to return major value. In a normal 12-team league, each team will start two running backs. If those leagues have a FLEX position, that means up to 36 RBs can start in any given week. These guys are firmly outside starter range in Week 1, so can deliver bang for the buck down the road.
Top 10 Rookies For Keeper/Dynasty Leagues
All ADP numbers are courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
Ryan Mathews, Eagles (ADP: 102)
Mathews is a starting-caliber RB without starter durability. That’s why his new role in Philadelphia is absolutely perfect. Because of Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense, Mathews will have full possessions all to himself, and he has the goods to make them count. Mathews will be a FLEX option even when DeMarco Murray is healthy, but if Murray goes down, Mathews can be elite in that offense. He’s currently the 38th RB off the board. Sounds like value.
David Cobb, Titans (ADP: 135)
We’ve covered the upside to Cobb here, but it’s worth hammering home—all he has to do to be a starter is beat out Bishop Sankey. Quick refresher: he averaged 3.7 yards per carry in 2014 and scored two touchdowns. Cobb is just a fifth-round pick so if he falters early there’s not much keeping him entrenched in the role, but for now as the No. 44 RB it’s not going to hurt you if you miss.
Andre Williams, Giants (ADP: 152)
This is one of my favorites. Fantasy owners tend to pay a lot of attention to yards per carry, and rightfully so. By that measure, Williams is just about undraftable. He averaged a woeful 3.3 yards per carry in 2014 as a rookie, and has to leapfrog not only Rashad Jennings, but new arrival Shane Vereen on the depth chart.
It’s not as bad as it looks though. Vereen’s role is set as a pass-catcher, third-down back. He’s not going to get many carries in a traditional sense; rather, he will eat into the snap counts for Jennings and Williams. As for Jennings, he’s not very durable, and has spent a bunch of time in camp working with the second team. The Giants’ staff may be grooming Williams for consistent early-down work, and we already know he is the go-to guy on the goal line. He scored seven touchdowns last season.
Williams is one of my favorite sleepers.
Khiry Robinson, Saints (ADP: 228)
Robinson has several obstacles to overcome on his way to relevance, which is why he is the 70th running back taken on average. Mark Ingram showed he’s reaching his potential last year and his numbers were dinged by injury, not a drop in performance at any point. The Saints also brought in C.J. Spiller as a free agent; he will be their third-down back, and play more than that. Look at him like a super-Darren Sproles.
Both of those guys are near-locks to be injured at some point in the year though, and that is when Robinson can strike. In extremely limited work last year Robinson averaged a robust 4.8 yards per carry and hauled in eight of his 11 targets. Look out!
Matt Jones, Redskins (ADP: 234)
Jones is behind Alfred Morris, one of the steadiest RBs in football. It makes sense he’s been banished to the No. 73 ranking among RBs, because he’s going to be a strictly passing-down back in the early going. But if you pay attention to the preseason, Jones is killing it.
He has been explosive as hell, his pass-catching has been talked up by coaches, and he already has a niche carved out. If he can bust big plays in his small role, the Redskins will have no choice but to use him more. Right now he’s going after bit players like Theo Riddick (Lions), Jerick McKinnon (Vikings) and Ronnie Hillman (Broncos). None of them are expected to see the field behind the three-down studs in front of them, so why wouldn’t owners take the flier on Jones’ potential?
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