The NFL preseason is in full swing, so gamblers will be putting in their bets for the upcoming season. This is the first of eight NFL divisional previews that will guide you toward the right over/under bets to make for the 2015 season. Today’s preview will be the AFC North. All over/unders are courtesy of Sportsbook.
Baltimore Ravens, O/U 9.5
The Ravens finished third in this division and barely squeaked into the playoffs with a plus-107 point differential, which means that they should be due for better times in 2015. The problem is that the weapons on offense took a hit when Torrey Smith left town. His 11 touchdowns might have been a fluke, but he was a real threat that defenses had to account for. They drafted speedy rookie Breshad Perriman to fill that role, but he’s had drops issues before and asking a rookie to be Smith is a tall order.
Defensively, the Baltimore front seven is monstrous. Terrell Suggs refuses to age, C.J. Mosley is an animal at linebacker, and the defensive line will survive losing Haloti Ngata, who was traded to Detroit. Jimmy Smith is back at CB, and even though they had a hard time vs. the pass last season, the renewed secondary health will be a plus. This is a pretty good team top-to-bottom, and the defense offsets the offense’s lack of pizzazz. OVER.
Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 8.5
Many are expecting the Steelers offense to be among the league’s best again, and if Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown are all healthy again this year, they’ll probably be right. But Bell is going to miss the first two games, Roethlisberger doesn’t play entire seasons too often, and Brown—well there aren’t really any red flags with him. Realistically, the pass-happy Steelers should be racking up points. It’s the defense that is scary.
It’s a young defense, and while that can mean big upside, it also can mean mental breakdowns. S Troy Polamalu is gone, and LB James Harrison isn’t the same anymore. They were leaders on this defense, and even with them last year the D was middling at best. Linebacker is where the unit is strongest, so perhaps the Steelers will be good against the run.
8.5 is a tough number, because they’ll almost certainly fall within this range. The division is crazy competitive, so the pick is UNDER.
Cincinnati Bengals, O/U 8.5
The Bengals rode some blowouts vs. bad teams to their plus-21 point differential last season, so that would indicate bad tidings, but they also had injuries wrecking their passing game all year. WRs A.J. Green and Marvin Jones either missed significant time, or were playing most of the year through maladies, and Green in particular was damaging. QB Andy Dalton is merely capable, and without Green he sometimes struggled to look serviceable. With Green, the Bengals are capable of big passing numbers.
Their offensive line is very good, and they have two stud running backs in Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. The defense is good as well, except for their pass rush. Cincinnati doesn’t rush the passer very well, and that might become harder to conceal as their secondary ages; three members of the Bengals defensive backfield are 30 or older. That’s a cause for concern, but the offense should be good enough to get them to nine wins as long as Dalton doesn’t implode. OVER.
Cleveland Browns, O/U 6.5
There would be a lot to like here if it weren’t for their quarterback situation. Josh McCown is a completely uninspiring option at QB, but it’s hard to make the case they should just hand the role to Johnny Manziel. It’s good that he’s maturing and showing improvement, but he was such a train wreck it will be hard to recover at all. The receivers are brutal too; it’s bad when Terrelle Pryor is the best hope for a star.
The offensive line should be excellent though, and running backs Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson may be a very good combination. Defensively, there’s hope. Rookie DT Danny Shelton figures to help a porous run defense immediately, and development from 2014 first-round CB Justin Gilbert could make the secondary formidable, S Tashaun Gipson is nasty. It really is a shame their QBs are so lackluster. UNDER.
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