The MLB is well into the dog days of August, and now is when the MVP race begins to crystallize. Here are the five best candidates duking it out in the race for the American League's most prestigious individual award.
5) Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Rays
Kiermaier’s slash line is .244/.275/.339 with four home runs and 23 RBIs. He’s stolen 11 bases, which is pretty good but not overwhelming. So why the hell would he be a potential MVP?
That would be because the Rays are still on the fringe of playoff contention with Kiermaier leading one of MLB’s best defenses. Kiermaier has been worth 22 runs with his defense alone, and he’s been hurt by a .294 BABIP, meaning he’s been unlucky and should be contributing even more with his bat. His 27 DRS are the highest in the AL by quite a bit—Lorenzo Cain is second with 15-- and the next-best defensive rating is 15.5, belonging to Royals SS Alcides Escobar.
The Rays have the AL’s second-best defense, and it’s almost entirely thanks to Kiermaier.
4) Alex Rodriguez, DH, Yankees
On its face, A-Rod’s bid for the MVP seems weak. He’s 19th in WAR (2.9) among American Leaguers, and played just fewer than 27 innings in the field. But Rodriguez has meant more to the Yankees than those numbers, and his case is more about intangibles and myth.
A-Rod was suspended all of 2014 for using steroids and then lying about it. He came into the season as a 39-year old, who had recent surgery on his hips, and having missed an entire season. Right now, he’s 40, and yet he’s posted a ..275/.382/.523 slash line that includes 24 home runs and 63 RBIs. Those are wild numbers for a 40-year-old, and he’s been one of the main reasons the Yankees are surprising the world with an extended stay atop the AL East standings.
With MLB’s crackdown on PEDs, power like Rodriguez’s is becoming increasingly rare. He has anchored the AL’s No. 2 offense, and managed to avoid generating any negative headlines. A-Rod won’t win the MVP, but he deserves recognition and consideration for the disadvantages he’s working with.
3) Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles
The Orioles are only 4.5 games back of the Yankees in the AL East, and Machado is the player most responsible. He’s finally at the point many thought he might reach last season, combining his elite glove with an All-Star stick. At .301 with 24 home runs, Machado’s RBI total (57) seems light until you realize he’s now leading off.
Machado’s 12 DRS are better than Donaldson’s, and he’s added 10.3 runs of value to Donaldson’s 6.7. Machado has also shown off some wheels, swiping 15 bases. Machado could creep ahead of Donaldson if Baltimore makes a run past them in the standings, but right now the O’s are out of the playoff picture which hurts his candidacy.
2) Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays
Donaldson would be on Trout’s heels if it weren’t for all Trout’s fanfare. Donaldson can be overshadowed by the names he shares his lineup with, but he’s been Toronto’s best player in 2015, and arguably a better all-around player than Trout.
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Donaldson’s slash line reads .297.365/.578 and he’s swatted 31 home runs (two less than Trout) and recorded 83 RBI (14 more than Trout). Most importantly, Donaldson has done dazzling work at the hot corner; he’s been worth 6.7 runs with his glove, and accounted for eight defensive runs saved (DRS). Trout’s OBP and slugging advantages give him an edge, but do not count out Donaldson in this race.
1) Mike Trout, OF, Angels
Trout is easily the frontrunner for the AL MVP award. He is tops in the AL in wins above replacement (WAR), and he’s only four home runs off his career-best total (36) with 49 games to go. Trout has been a slight negative defensively this season, and his stolen base numbers remain very low compared to his first two seasons when he was swiping 30-plus bags, but this could be considered his best offensive season to date.
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Trout’s OBP is sitting at a cool .397, and his BABIP is actually lower now than it was in 2014. He’s still actually improving as a hitter, which would seem impossible if we weren’t all witnessing it happen. He’s cutting out holes in his swing too, as evidenced by his dropping strikeout rate, which spiked last year as he transitioned into becoming a pure slugger. He’s hands down the best player in the game today, and he is the clear favorite to bring a second straight MVP home.
Honorable Mentions: Jason Kipnis, 2B (CLE), Lorenzo Cain, OF (KC), J.D. Martinez, OF (DET), Nelson Cruz, OF (SEA), Mark Teixeira, 1B (NYY)
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