Mike Trout is the frontrunner to win the American League MVP for the second straight season, but is it fair to say the best player in the game hasn't been playing his best ball?
Trout's first two seasons were a revelation. He essentially waltzed onto the field in 2012, technically still a rookie, and looked like a video game master tearing through a game he had solved from the outset. In 2012 and 2013 Trout slashed .324/.416/.560 and averaged 32 home runs and 99 RBIs per 162 games. Insane. He also stole 82 bases and got caught just 12 times; so per 162 Trout was just throwing in 41 swipes.
Bryce Harper feeling the heat from first-place Mets
Defensively he was a marvel. He made wall-scaling catches look simple and was responsible for saving the Angels 21 runs with his glove.
On the base paths pitched in another 22 runs of value. Based off his defense and base running alone Trout was worth 38 runs.
He also won the AL MVP zero times in those two seasons.
Since then, Trout won in 2014, and looks poised for another trophy this year. It's questionable whether he's actually been better though. In 2014 Trout's power spiked and he belted a career-high 36 home runs. His stolen bases dipped dramatically from 33 to 16 however, and his strikeout-rate ballooned from 19 percent to 26 percent. Defensively Trout cratered; he was plus-3.3 in 2013, and then minus-8.1 last season. Also, after back-to-back 10-plus WAR seasons he dipped to 8.0. That's a truly nitpicky point to make, but the fact of the matter is that parts of his game deteriorated as his body and home run total grew.
Throwback" In 2014 experts said Trout vs. Harper "wasn't even close"
This season has been better for Trout, but has gone further in the direction of 2014 Trout. After swatting the aforementioned career-high 36 bombs last year, Trout, in 104 games, already has 32. Zips projects he will bang out 13 more, leaving him with 45. His batting average is back above .300, and he's cut down the strikeouts by three percent. He's also helped himself out defensively; at the moment he's at minus-0.5 runs with the leather.
His projected WAR at year's end is 9.2, and his Offensive rating (batting and base running above average) will shake out at 65.2, 6.5 runs above his 2014 pace.
Power is in much shorter supply these days, but Trout's current form is still not quite tour de force baseball fans witnessed in 2012. That version was the perfect whirlwind of power, speed and defense, and while Trout 2.0 is hitting the ball further than ever, the original model should still own the purist's heart.
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