Nothing is more frustrating than investing a high pick on a player who goes on to lose his job. Whether it is because of injury or poor performance, players lose starting gigs every season and do not always get them back. Sometimes it is more prudent to be able to identify those players most in danger of losing their spot rather than filling up your bench with handcuffs.
Here are seven players whom you may not want to count on for 16 games.
3 Potential Big Name Busts At RB
Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals (ADP: No. 48)
Ellington was a red-hot pick in last year’s drafts, but despite starting 11 more games in 2014 than he did as a rookie he finished with the same amount of touchdowns. Ellington is quick and shifty, and he improved his production in the passing game, but he did little to convince owners that he’s a capable three-down back. When Arizona David Johnson with a third-round pick, it was a message that Ellington could be on thin ice, or already in a committee.
It may be better for Ellington to reduce his touches, but it’s never good in fantasy to lose volume. Relying on him as anything more than a mid-tier RB2 means you better be loaded elsewhere.
Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders (ADP: 43)
The upside of Murray is obvious; any player who can tally up 112 yards and two scores on just four carries is clearly an A+ athlete. The issue is two-fold; Murray has already given owners reason to doubt his health by getting hurt four carries into that monster performance vs. the Chiefs. He has only started three games in his brief NFL career and assuming he can hold up as a lead back is simply a bet on his talent. There is no track record of durability.
Second, he has veteran competition behind him. Trent Richardson has become a bit of a punch line because of his ineptitude the past few seasons after being selected third overall in 2012 but he has been a starter before and did score 11 touchdowns as a rookie.
Roy Helu is more interesting than Richardson. He, like Murray, has never been the top dog in a backfield, but his numbers in limited work are impressive. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry in 2014 for the Redskins as well as three catches per game. That has to be interesting to new head coach Jack Del Rio, who isn’t beholden to Murray. Helu’s been in the league longer, and already figures to have a line on third-down snaps. If he’s excelling there’s no reason he can’t surpass Murray on the depth chart.
Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers (ADP: 102)
Martin has been atrocious for two years now, but he remains relevant because he is Tampa Bay’s starter, and all starting running backs must be drafted. He has a ton of competition in camp though from Charles Sims, last year’s third-round pick out of West Virginia, and the underrated Bobby Rainey who is excellent in the passing game.
Martin’s rookie season was undeniably great, but 261 carries and two seasons later it’s looking like a massive fluke. He has a great chance in 2015 to change his perception—and maybe become a HUGE steal with this ADP—but if he starts off slow it will be real easy for head coach Lovie Smith to bury him.
Andre Johnson, WR, Colts (ADP: 45)
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Andre Johnson is 34 years old, and even though he has arguably the best QB in the game chucking the rock—that would be Andrew Luck—Indianapolis is well-stocked at WR. Veterans lose their edge quickly at the skill positions, and the Colts learned that first hand with Reggie Wayne in 2014.
T.Y. Hilton is the fantasy WR1 on this team, and they drafted Donte Moncrief in the third round last year, as well as Phillip Dorsett in Round 1 this year. If Johnson is in decline, he could be yanked quick in favor of some of these studs.
Mike Wallace, WR, Vikings (ADP: 86)
Wallace is a steady fantasy WR, but he’s typically been a bit overdrafted because of the deep threat he presents. Fantasy owners continue to hope they’re drafting DeSean Jackson, when they’re actually getting a solid FLEX. Last year he scored 10 touchdowns—and he had done it before—but it’s unwise to expect a repeat of that in Minnesota.
The issue for Wallace with the Vikings is competition. At 29 he’s the elder statesman of their promising crew of wide receivers, and if he shows any slippage than Charles Johnson, Cordarrelle Patterson and Jarius Wright have all shown flashes of excellence. Wallace is well-paid, so a benching would be a shock, but progressively fewer targets and snaps seems possible.
Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins (ADP: 177)
Griffin’s ADP is in the toilet now but one or two big runs in the preseason will have him leaping over low-upside passers on draft boards. Certain players ahead of him are safer, but they’re also limited in their ceiling. Griffin’s last two seasons have been awful, but there’s no denying that his physical ability and running capabilities don’t carry Top 5 upside.
On the flip side of that, his running leaves him open to injuries (past RGIII owners will say amen!), and he’s been benched before too. Drafting him as a QB1 is not smart. But in two-QB formats RGIII is a bona fide sleeper, so it matters.
Josh McCown, QB, Browns (ADP: 222)
McCown only matters in two-QB leagues, but there’s plenty of those out there. He’s the frontrunner to start and after Johnny Manziel’s trainwreck rookie season he shouldn’t be handed the job. However, Manziel could impress in training camp and establish himself as a clear No. 2. If the Browns struggle out of the gate—and McCown’s 2014 numbers were ugly—the fans may turn on him and want to see if Manziel has any chance to be their future.
Manziel is not a great quarterback, but if he can make plays with his legs he’ll be relevant in a 2012 Tim Tebow kind of way. McCown’s not as important here as the possibility of Manziel making himself matter.
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