When drafting your fantasy football team, it’s always nice to draft studs. Especially guys that you know are super talented, but yet fall for some reason. Always consider why a player may be falling in a draft.
Sometimes, a player will tumble so far that it becomes foolish not to snap him up, but other times it is not so obvious. One reason a player’s value may drop is that he plays in an offense that isn’t very good. Today, SWN will point out five players this may apply to in 2015.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 16)
McCoy is a proven commodity, and even though last year was a disappointment for him, he still racked up more than 1,000 yards on the ground and five touchdowns. He has left Philadelphia for Buffalo, and while head coach Rex Ryan has boasted about how many times he plans on handing the rock to McCoy, owners may want to lay off until the value is right.
Opportunity counts for a lot in fantasy, and McCoy should rank among the league leaders in attempts barring injury. But the Bills don’t have much around him. Sammy Watkins is a talented receiver, but the Bills’ QB battle is uninspiring to say the least. Defenses will be loading the box vs. McCoy, and he’s prone to lost yardage because of his juke-heavy style. He’s going off the board as the 10th running back, but he may return even less value than that.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans (ADP: 38)
You may think Hopkins is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL. It’d be hard to disagree, but when he is catching passes from either Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett this year, expect a few weeks where he does next to nothing. Hopkins does not have a good quarterback throwing to him, and the Houston offense is predicated on Arian Foster running the ball. Hopkins might have the tools to be elite, but the situation is all wrong.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 40)
Brees is a slam dunk Hall of Fame quarterback, and for years has been an elite fantasy quarterback. Brees is 36 years old now though, and showing signs of decline. It is better to be a year too early on a veteran than a year too late, and this offseason contained some red flags.
First, the Saints traded away Brees’ top target, Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham. Brees’ receiving corps now consists of second-year slot man Brandin Cooks, an aging Marques Colston, and some young players battling. They traded Graham for center Mx Unger, presumably to help the running game. One of the big additions to the team was RB C.J. Spiller, making a nice thunder-and-lightning combo with Mark Ingram.
While pass-catchers are being shipped away, linemen and running backs are signed. The Saints may be ready to rely less on Brees, and more on their ground game. If so, 40th overall is far too early for Brees.
Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Jets (ADP: 61)
Marshall was once an elite fantasy wide receiver, but the stats show his production dips when he is away from Jay Cutler. He scored nine total touchdowns in two seasons with the Miami Dolphins sans Cutler, then headed to Chicago where he promptly scored 11 times. The following year he scored 12 touchdowns, and he hauled in eight touchdown passes last year in just 13 games.
Cutler is much maligned, but he’s a far more prolific passer than presumed Jets quarterback Geno Smith. In fact, Smith could be considered a downgrade from even Marshall’s Miami passers Chad Henne and Matt Moore. Marshall will not fall off a cliff, but 80 catches and 1,000 yards may be the ceiling for 2015.
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (ADP:62)
Newton is a freak athlete, but he just doesn’t have much help. His offensive line was not good last season, and their big move to address it was to sign an over-the-hill Michael Oher. Newton’s rushing ability helps him overcome weak passing totals, but last season was his worst rushing season ever. He battled injury yes, but he may also be looking to run less and lean on his arm more.
WR Kelvin Benjamin and TE Greg Olsen help that, but not if Newton is being chased all game long. Jonathan Stewart is no lock to stay healthy at RB, and there isn’t much depth behind him. Newton will explode some weeks, but he could also have a few with 10 points or fewer. Why not take more consistency later on in the draft?
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