Each year there are sleepers who are picked in the mid-to-late rounds that win leagues for their owners. On the flip side, there are big-ticket players that get taken too early and sink those owners' chances. Each year it's super fun to identify the sleepers, but it might be more important to recognize the busts.
Here are the top 5 likeliest busts at outfield. These busts are always relative to draft position.
Jacoby Ellsbury, New York Yankees (ADP-28, Other positions: none)
Ellsbury proved durable in his first season in the Bronx, and did experience a power surge to 16 home runs from nine the previous season. However, Ellsbury has had spikes in power in the past, and the argument that Yankee Stadium bolstered the total doesn't hold water-Ellsbury hit nine home runs away from home, and seven in his own building.
Ellsbury's stolen bases dropped some last year, and with his home runs fluctuating year-to-year, declining steal totals past age 30 are troublesome. If you attribute that to the Yankees moving Ellsbury down into the heart of the order, then it hurts his value. That spot didn't translate to big RBI numbers, and the Yankees' lineup is shaky this year.
George Springer, Houston Astros (ADP-42, Other positions: none)
Springer is a 25-year-old dual threat who has a solid track record of near 20-20 performances throughout his minor league tenure. Last season he showed pop (20 home runs in 78 games), while his speed was hampered by some nagging injuries.
Springer also hit .231 in those 78 games while striking out in 33 percent of his at-bats. The K-rate is a real thing and has always plagued him; if his average stays depressed by the whiffs, he won't be worth a third or fourth round pick.
Matt Kemp, San Diego Padres (ADP-49, Other positions: none)
Kemp was finally healthy last season, and even though he was horrendous in the outfield, he hit .287 with 25 home runs in 150 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers, which is what counts to owners. Unless WAR is a category, last season marked a return to prominence.
Then, he was shipped to the Padres where he'll play 81 games in PETCO Park, one of the worst hitter's parks in MLB. Kemp would've been a nice fit in the AL where he can serve as a DH from time to time, but instead he'll man PETCO's spacious outfield and risk injury. He's not always the healthiest and his ADP is creeping back toward elite territory. That doesn't reflect how unstable his health can be.
Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins (ADP-84, Other positions: none)
Yelich has had back-to-back seasons with BABIPs of .380 and .356. Yelich is fast, but he's not The Flash; those BABIP performances will regress, and owners will be left with a 30-steal outfielder with very little pop and a good-but-not-great batting average.
There will be runs to score atop the order, but overall Yelich is more likely to perform below this ADP than exceed it.
J.D. Martinez, Detroit Tigers (ADP-107, Other positions: none)
Martinez broke out in a huge way that he'd shown no previous signs of being capable of. Perhaps that had to do with his incredible .389 BABIP, marking extreme amounts of luck. His 23 home runs can't be taken away from him-Martinez has good power and will be in a big-time lineup.
Last year's breakout didn't produce huge RBI, and Yoenis Cespedes should claim the No. 5 spot in the order in due time. He was a big value last season, but now he's at best appropriately ranked, and may be overrated.
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