Each year there are sleepers who are picked in the mid-to-late rounds that win leagues for their owners. On the flip side, there are big-ticket players that get taken too early and sink those owners' chances. Each year it's super fun to identify the sleepers, but it might be more important to recognize the busts.
Here are the top 5 likeliest busts at catcher. These busts are always relative to draft position.
Evan Gattis, Houston Astros (ADP-88, Other positions: none)
Gattis should gain outfield eligibility fairly quickly as an Astro, but his value to fantasy owners will be at catcher. Is Gattis a solid source of power? Sure he is, especially with increased at-bats. More at bats will mean more strikeouts though. In points leagues this is a big no-no, and in general for a home run hitter he has pedestrian on-base skills.
For a mediocre batting average and decent pop at catcher you won't need to spend a Top 90 pick on Gattis. Is there 30-homer pop in his bat? Maybe-but it will come as a fairly steep cost to other areas.
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals (ADP-106, Other positions: none)
Perez has an attractive 85 percent contact rate, but his refusal to take pitches and work walks limits his upside. He only walked 3.6 percent of the time last season and he logged more than 600 plate appearances. Without much power to speak of (17 home runs, a career-high at any level), Perez owners are at the mercy of his BABIP. Last season Perez was more unlucky than usual, and his owners were rewarded with a .260 batting average.
That should regress upward, but he's a pretty boring option for someone at the Top 10 of his position. Gamble on upside elsewhere, and try and hit it big at catcher with a later pick.
Brian McCann, New York Yankees (ADP-134, Other positions: 1B)
Sadly, I'm of the mind that Brian McCann just doesn't have it anymore. If all you are looking for is power from your catcher, then McCann should be able to deliver 20 or so home runs without issue. Yankee Stadium treats him well-19 of his 23 home runs last year came at home-and he's hit 20-plus homers for seven consecutive seasons.
The issue is that he's getting on base less and less, and set a career-low for walk rate in 2014 (5.9 percent). If his bat is slowing then pitchers will challenge, and beat him. Low average, low on-base, and potentially low RBI in a shaky lineup are all traits to avoid when investing in a Top 10 catcher.
Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies (ADP-178, Other positions: none)
Rosario has shown good power potential in the past, but like the other names on this list he is not good at getting on base. He strikes out a ton, and this season he'll be in a dogfight for playing time because the Rockies signed Nick Hundley to compete with him at catcher, and will be deploying Justin Morneau full time at first base. Coors Field always helps, but he's the 11th catcher off the board on average, meaning one person in most 12-team leagues is drafting him as their primary catcher. Bad move.
Russell Martin, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP-203, Other positions: none)
Martin's 21 home runs inflate his value a bit after the 2012 season, and now his value is bloated again because of his .290 batting average. Toronto is a hitter's park, so 15 homers is in play, but that .290 average came with a .336 BABIP. His career BABIP is .289. Martin won't be a disaster, but he will be dropped at some point. Take a chance! Go get someone younger and more exciting, and just add Martin if you whiffed on the pick and need someone decent.
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