While boxing fans should not allow themselves to get overly excited about the recent developments regarding a Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao super fight finally happening, it's hard to argue that the fight doesn't look closer than ever.
According to reports Pacquiao and Top Rank have agreed to the terms on their end; that means accepting 40 percent of the revenue generated, agreeing to USADA drug testing, and the ability for both fighters to choose their own brand of eight-ounce gloves.
While the presence of Top Rank CEO Bob Arum as Pacquiao's promoter has been an enormous stumbling block in the past to the completion of this bout, CBS CEO Leslie Moonves is playing middle man here-meaning there is a chance Mayweather makes this happen.
Currently Las Vegas oddsmakers have installed the unbeaten Mayweather as a minus-275 favorite over Pacquiao. Here are three important things Pacquiao must do if he is to crack the infamous "MayVinci Code."
Move His Head
Pacquiao's never quite been able to usurp the top pound-for-pound crown from Mayweather because Floyd has never lost-but Pacquiao at his peak was certainly the more popular of the two. While some of that has to do with Mayweather's villainous persona, more of it has to do with their fighting styles.
Pacquiao racked up more knockouts, and engaged in more vicious tilts, because of his tendency to overwhelm opponents with aggression-and take damage in the process. While that led to brutal beatings of superstars like Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito, it also meant risking his skin as he did in 2012 vs. Juan Manuel Marquez.
Simply put-defense isn't Pacquiao's strong suit. Against Mayweather, he won't necessarily need to clam up Joshua Clottey style, but he will need to be constantly moving his head. Mayweather has slowed some, and is more reliant than ever on hard, accurate jabs that set him up for whatever it is he wants to do.
Pacquiao is much quicker than any of Mayweather's recent opponents, but he'll need to have more than fast hands if he wants to break down Mayweather's masterful shoulder roll defense. Moving his head and escaping the long-range jab is the first part of a successful Pacquiao game plan. Pacquiao's most recent fight-a one-sided beating of Chris Algieri, owner of a very good jab himself-shows some of Pacquiao's potential to hone this.
Gum Up The Fight
Pride may get in the way of this, but Pacquiao might have to adjust the approach that made him a worldwide icon if he wants to hand Mayweather his first loss. Pacquiao built a reputation on whirling around opponents, firing hard shots from bizarre angles, and eventually wearing them out. Mayweather's too well-fortified to be bothered by that, and has what seems to be limitless stamina.
On top of that, Pacquiao's punches may have lost steam as he's continued with his career. He hasn't knocked anyone out since beating Cotto by TKO in Round 9. Yes, he knocked Algieri down six time, but two were slips and the rest were unable to finish a junior welterweight in his first ever bout at 147 pounds.
Pacquiao should learn from what Marcos Maidana did early in his first bout with Mayweather, which was rough him up, be a little dirty, and just hit him as hard as possible while refusing to let him set his distance. Mayweather has no interest in fighting hard, inside battles. If Pacquiao mixes in elements of Maidana's first strategy he will probably be more effective; as a quicker-handed boxer Mayweather won't have as much time to see his shots coming.
It's risky to go against what got you to the big-time, especially against the most skilled fighter in the world. But as currently constituted Pacquiao's approach plays into Mayweather's hands.
Don't Be A Hero
Freddie Roach is one of boxing's best trainers ever. He has most recently resurrected the career of Cotto, once one of the sport's most feared fighters, but one who had lost two fights and seemed on the verge of retirement in 2012. He devises great game plans, and should Pacquiao face Mayweather, he'll surely devise another.
But Mayweather inspires anger in his opponents, and Pacquiao has a particularly strong distaste for him.
Pacquiao fights with a warrior's mentality, and if he clocks Mayweather only to receive a grin in return, or isn't connecting and getting that infamously arrogant head shake, he may throw caution to the wind and try to brawl.
That's a mistake. Mayweather wants that from Pacquiao so that he can back up, and counter with pot shots. He will make the fight slow, he won't take damage, and he'll laugh his way to the bank like he did vs. Canelo Alvarez. Pacquiao must fight more with his mind against Mayweather than he ever has before-even against Marquez.
[ESPN]
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