On Tuesday the Baseball Writer Association of American voted into Cooperstown the largest incoming class since 1955. Four new legends are getting their plagues put up in the hall -- Craig Biggio, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz.
None of the selections were controversial; two were near-unanimous, and the only one who didn't enter on the first ballot was Biggio, who missed induction by just two votes last year.
With the 2015 class settled, speculation has now turned toward 2016. So, with the mindset of "it's never too early for some predictions," here's a look at what to expect on next year's ballot.
Presumptive Locks
Looking at the liste, there's only one player on the ballot who appears a near-certain guarantee to break the 75 percent threshold for induction. That's one Ken Griffey, Jr., center fielder for numerous teams, most famously the Seattle Mariners. Griffey made 13 All Star Games, won 10 Gold Gloves, an AL MVP trophy, and bashed 630 homers. He's untainted by the clouds of steroid speculation that defined his era, and he was one of the most genuinely likeable personalities in the history of the sports. He'll be in easily.
Like Their Chances
It's hard to believe that 2016 won't finally be the year for former Mets and Dodgers catcher Mike Piazza, arguably the best hitter in the history of the position. Early returns on voting indicated he might have a shot in 2015, but he topped out at 69 percent. Considering he started out at 57.8 percent on the ballot in 2013 and has been climbing ever since, barring unforeseen circumstances he should get in next year.
Trevor Hoffman is the second marquee name of the year besides Junior Griffey. His nomination is less of a slam dunk, but his 601 career saves in an era where closers became more important than ever should be enough to earn him a spot in Cooperstown. He may have to wait a year or two, though.
Jim Edmonds is an interesting candidate. He was a great hitter but not a transformational or legendary one. His numbers are good -- .284, 393 HR, 1,199 RBI, .903 OPS -- but not the kind that traditionally indicate a ironclad Hall of Fame lock. Where Edmonds' candidacy becomes stronger is in advanced stats and defense. He won eight Gold Gloves and was universally considered the best center fielder in the national league for years. And in the decade between 1995 and 2005, only A-Rod and Barry Bonds had a higher WAR than Edmonds. However, the BBWA writers are often dismissive if not downright ignorant when it comes to prioritizing advanced stats and defensive value as highly as traditional offensive statistical categories.
Long Odds
Newcomer Billy Wagner is the last newcomer that even has an argument to make the Hall (though I predict he'll fall short). Returning stars both tainted (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire) and untainted (Mike Mussina, Tim Raines) will need a significant uptick in their most recent tallies to hit 75%.
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