The 2014 World Series has passed, and the attention of MLB fans will now turn to the hot stove. Here is a guide to the top free agent starting pitchers.
Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
Scherzer may or may not be the top name on the market, but the stats say he's clearly the best one. Coming off a 2013 Cy Young award Scherzer threw 220 innings for the American League Central champions, going 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA.
For two straight seasons Scherzer has posted a K/9 of more than 10, and a FIP of 2.85 or lower. With rates like that, and a 55-15 win-loss record over the past three seasons, this 30-year-old is due to get paid big bucks.
Jon Lester, Oakland A's
Lester is highly unlikely to return to Oakland; the trade that sent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to Boston was meant to bolster their rotation for a deep playoff run. He had a shaky start in the wildcard matchup with the Royals, and now will hit the market as the glossiest name.
Lester had the best season of his career, notching a 2.46 ERA in 219.2 innings of work for the Red Sox and A's. He posted the best K/9 of his career since 2010, walked less than a batter per nine, and was worth a combined 6.1 WAR per Fangraphs.
Lester, like Scherzer, is already 30 years old and he's only achieved heights like this once. He is for sure the best non-Scherzer option available though, and will get paid just like his right-handed counterpart.
James Shields, Kansas City Royals
Despite losing a major prospect in Wil Myers, it's hard to knock the deal Kansas City made before the 2013 season. Shields has been a workhorse for them, pitching 227 innings or more in back-to-back seasons with sub-3.22 ERAs in both seasons. Shields was mocked some for his poor postseason-and in general Shields has been a bad postseason pitcher-but his regular season contributions are great.
A lengthy contract is a risk because Shields is already 32 years old, but he would be a very nice consolation prize for teams who miss out on Scherzer and Lester.
Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves
Santana has the upside for a 2015 as good as any of the pitchers listed above, but he carries a great deal of risk. He'll be fairly expensive after a 2014 campaign in which he went 14-10 with a sub-4.00 ERA, his highest K/BB ratio since 2008, and a FIP that indicates his ERA should've been even lower.
Santana's had some truly putrid seasons in the past, but he looks like he's turned a corner. At 31 years old he isn't a spring chicken, but he should get less money than the first three pitchers because of a wobbly past and some durability concerns.
Kenta Maeda, Japan
Following the massive success of Yu Darvish in Texas and Masahiro Tanaka for the Yankees, Maeda will be the next coveted Japanese arm. Maeda has pitched for Hiroshima for the last seven years, compiling an 82-58 record with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
Maeda doesn't have the hype surrounding him like Tanaka did, but his Japanese performance shows good command, the ability to limit home runs, and solid strikeout stuff. This is the type of player that stagnant teams can add to make a splash, but the expectations for him in the early going may be tough to handle.
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