The Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals won in surprisingly quick fashion in their American League Divisional Series matchups with the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels, respectively. Momentum is often pointed to as a determining factor when predicting series, but in this case both teams are riding big waves.
The Royals have America on their side, with baseball fans everywhere rooting for the biggest underdogs in this postseason. Meanwhile the O's won two come-from-behind victories by smacking around a Tigers bullpen that performed woefully.
TV Schedule *if necessary
Game 1: October 10, 8:00 p.m. @ Baltimore (TBS)
Game 2: October 11, 4:00 p.m. @ Baltimore (TBS)
Game 3: October 13, TBD @ Kansas City (TBS)
Game 4: October 14, TBD @Kansas City (TBS)
Game 5: October 15, TBD @ Kansas City (TBS)*
Game 6: October 17, TBD @Baltimore (TBS)*
Game 7: October 18, TBD @ Baltimore (TBS)*
Radio
Baltimore Orioles Broadcast--1090 WBAL
Kanas City Royals Broadcast--KCSP 610
Orioles Projected Rotation
Game 1: Chris Tillman
Game 2: Wei-Yin Chen
Game 3: Bud Norris
Game 4: Miguel Gonzalez
Royals Projected Rotation
Game 1: James Shields
Game 2: Jason Vargas
Game 3: Jeremy Guthrie
Game 4: Yordano Ventura
Preview
The Orioles and Royals ranked third and fourth in the American League this year in runs allowed per game, so very little can be gleaned regarding an advantage for either staff in that regard. The Orioles performed better by a hair, with the Royals getting a slight advantage in terms of FIP, which takes into account only strikeouts, home runs and walks.
Where the Royals do have an advantage is Game 1, which will be started by "Big Game" James Shields. His numbers aren't spectacular this postseason--11 innings pitched, six earned runs, 12 strikeouts, four walks and three home runs allowed--and he has an ERA of almost five in 45 postseason innings for his career.
That said, he performed best of the eight projected starters over the course of the 2014 regular season with a 3.21 ERA in 227 innings of work. Shields posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, with 7.1 strikeouts per nine.
The way the ALCS is set up, losing a game at home could be fatal for the Orioles, with three straight tilts taking place in front of a Royals crowd that was playoff-starved for nearly three decades.
Offensively, the edge goes to the Orioles even without slugger Chris Davis, who isn't expected to be placed on the roster. AL home-run leader Nelson Cruz belted two home runs in the ALDS, and batted .500 for the three-game sweep. He's joined by fellow sluggers Adam Jones and Steve Pearce in a powerful lineup that led the AL in home runs (211), and out-homered the next most powerful team by 33 bombs.
The Royals hope to counteract those thumpers with a pitching staff that surrendered the third-fewest home runs (128) in the AL in 2014.
The bullpen battle may be a draw. The Orioles' relief corps features a nearly-unhittable left-hander in Andrew Miller, who was acquired at the trade deadline, a ground-ball machine at closer in Zach Britton, and arguably their best starter this season (Kevin Gausman) who can be deployed at any time as a fireman.
Kansas City has been able to shorten games with the late-inning combination of Wade Davis and Greg Holland; their own starter, lefty Danny Duffy, can also be used in a Gausman-esque role.
Prediction: Royals in 6. Kansas City's rotation could be kryptonite for the Orioles' power, and Baltimore's own staff hasn't pitched quite as well as their surface stats would indicate. If Kansas City is able to get leads early using their surplus speed, it may be difficult for the O's to come back off a pen that is superior to Detroit's.
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