If Johan Santana returns to Major League Baseball this season, fans may as well call him “Jamie Moyer.”
Santana, a two-time AL Cy Young award winner for the Twins, worked out in front of scouts for several MLB teams on Tuesday, including the Yankees. While his change up and off-speed pitches showed movement, Santana's fastball barely registered past 80 mph. It reached as high as 81 mph on one occasion.
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“Today was a very good day off the mound, getting better,” said Santana, who posted the message to fans on his twitter page.
Santana last pitched at the Major League level for the Mets in 2012. He went 6-9, with an un-Santana like 4.85 ERA. Though in 117.0 innings of work, he did strike out 111 batters, proving he had plenty of movement on his pitches.
If Santana wants to succeed in the Major Leagues again, then his velocity needs to increase. 81 MPH on his fastball may cut it in a Saturday rec league, but not the Major Leagues. Now that's not a knock on Santana, who has as hard a work ethic as anyone in baseball. Even during a horrid 2012 season, he provided Mets' fans with hope by pitching the first no-hitter in the history of the franchise. Many seem to wonder if that no-hitter is Santana's last crowning achievement as a Major League pitcher? Have we seen the last of Johan Santana?
The best answer I can give is: yes and no. Yes, we have seen the last of Santana in terms of an overpowering standpoint. In his prime, Santana's fastball was clocked on average at 94 and 95 MPH. Most pitchers will tell you that the difference between 94 MPH and 90 MPH is huge. The difference between 94 MPH and 81 MPH is universal. Santana will never again overpower hitters and strikeout 238 batters in a season, something he did on average from 2004-2008.
However, there is an old saying in baseball that lefties always get second, third and fourth chances. Santana will be signed by some team that needs pitching because he brings a different dimension to the mound. He has a great baseball mind and can easily out-think the competition, something Greg Maddux was known for after he lost his velocity.
As long as his body holds up, Santana will pitch in the Major Leagues again. History is on his side. Look at the career of Jamie Moyer. Moyer, who joined the Philadelphia Phillies at age 43, found success at the end of his career. Moyer pitched five seasons with the Phillies, going 56-40, with a 4.55 ERA. In 2008, with a fastball often clocked under 80 MPH, Moyer won 16 games and pitched to the tune of a 3.71 ERA to lead the Phillies to a World Series championship. He stayed in the Major Leagues until age 49, winning 269 career games. More than 100 of those wins came after Moyer turned 40.
Santana has the potential to remain a competitive Major League pitcher. He will never be the dominant Cy Young award winner he once was. Fans should not expect him to be that pitcher. Like all Major Leaguers, Santana is losing his match up against Father Time. To this day, Father Time remains undefeated and likely will never lose. Yet, Santana doesn't need his fastball to win games. He needs his mind and the movement of his pitches. I don't believe Santana's lost either of those aspects from his arsenal.
By the start of the 2014 season, Santana will be 35-years old. He can still pitch in the Major Leagues. I believe if healthy, Santana will pitch until he's 40. For all we know he could be the next Jamie Moyer, a pitcher who stays in the Major Leagues as long as he wants. Either way, some team will sign Santana this season.
You know what they say, “a left arm will travel.” Johan Santana will be back and that's something fans can count or “clock” on.
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