The Chiefs vs. Dolphins Wild Card is arguably the toughest call out there.
The defending champions Kansas City Chiefs finished with an 11-6 record to conquer the American Football Conference West division, while the Miami Dolphins finished second in the AFC East with an identical record behind the Buffalo Bills.
For that, the Chiefs get the home advantage in the wild-card round. The winner will face the Baltimore Ravens, who are already waiting in the Divisional Playoffs after getting the bye.
The game will kick off on Saturday, January 13, at 8:00 PM ET at the Arrowhead Stadium. Fans can watch it through Peacock.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Wild Card Odds, Spread, Betting Lines
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -4, Miami Dolphins +4
Moneyline: Kansas City -213, Miami +176
Over/Under: 44.5 points
Note: Chiefs are 4-4 against the spread at home this season, while the Dolphins played worse as underdogs, recording 1-5 ATS.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Wild Card Game Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs struggled in the regular season, but things are falling in the right places for them ahead of the wild card round.
They got a bye week before their latest assignment, had key players rested, and still managed to win in their last game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Chief among them is Travis Kelce. He did not see minutes against the Chargers, but he still finished 2023 with 93 receptions, 984 receiving yards, and five touchdown catches.
Read more: Should Jim Harbaugh Leave Michigan Football, Head Back to NFL After CFP Title Win?
Their record with the Dolphins looks good, too, winning three straights of their showdowns.
However, one should manage expectations as in that span; the Chiefs accumulated 118 points against the Dolphins' 111.
Their 2023 meeting might be a source of doubt, too, over the Chiefs' ability to close out.
Coach Andy Reid and his squad have second-half problems. They averaged just 7.5 second-half points during the regular season, tied with the New York Jets in the 30th spot.
Against the Dolphins in Week 9, they went blank in the third and fourth quarters. It helped that they established a 21-0 lead in the first half.
The game was played at the Frankfurt Stadium, which has an entirely different weather than the Arrowhead Stadium.
Mahomes struggled in the game, and so did his Miami counterpart, Tua Tagovailoa. With the game moving to the colder Kansas, the Chiefs got a home and weather advantages.
Tagovailoa struggles in colder stadiums. The team lost their last ten games that kicked off below 40 degrees. Tagovailoa has a five-game losing streak, 6-13 overall, in games that kicked off in a temperature below 70 degrees.
Unfortunately for them, the Saturday match could be the coldest playoff game either team has ever played in, with the temperature predicted to hit around 5 degrees with a wind chill of -10.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Wild Card Pick
The weather is a factor in the game, but this will remain a tough call. Chiefs will win the game, but based on their struggles, this will be close.
Final score: Kansas City Chiefs 25-22 Miami Dolphins
Related article: NFL Wild Card Weekend Chiefs Vs. Dolphins - Hill's Return to Arrowhead
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