Betting against the spread is no easy task, but the one thing you can count on, is that going with the obvious choices will lose you money. Here are three excellent bets, against the spread, that go a little bit off the beaten path.
*Home teams in caps
**Spreads and bet percentages courtesy of Pregame.com
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TITANS (+6) over Falcons
The Titans are winless since Week 1, and missing quarterback Marcus Mariota this week as well as wide receiver Harry Douglas. They will start Zach Mettenberger at QB, who is as stationary a passer as there is in football, and he will be playing behind the second-worst pass-blocking offensive line in football. So why would you bet them?
Because Atlanta has been winning games by slight margins, usually overcoming fourth quarter deficits. RB Devonta Freeman is playing at an unsustainable pace, and Julio Jones isn’t fully healthy. The Titans O-line gives up sacks, but the Falcons’ pass rush is also among the league’s worst. Most importantly, 91 percent of the action is on Atlanta, so don’t expect Las Vegas to take that huge of a beating.
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Texans (+5) over DOLPHINS
The Dolphins were mighty impressive in shellacking the Titans last week in Tennessee, but that’s no reason for them to suddenly be giving five points, even at home. The Texans’ defense woke up last week against the lowly Jaguars, and their offense has been much less ragged with Brian Hoyer at the helm. He’s no great shakes, but nobody should fear that the Dolphins’ defense is going to ruffle him.
The ‘Fins still rank 25th vs. the pass and 22nd vs. the run, so even if Houston can’t win outright, they can lose by less than five points.
COLTS (-4) over Saints
The Colts looked like themselves again last week vs. the Patriots, even if they lost. Andrew Luck was under center once again, and they were moving the ball through the air, which in turn opened up holes for Frank Gore to rush through.
The Saints may be coming off a win last Thursday vs, the then-unbeaten Falcons, but their record was a bit fluky. New Orleans’ pass defense is still ranked dead-last in the NFL, and Luck is going to exploit it all day long.
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