Betting against the spread is no easy task, but the one thing you can count on, is that going with the obvious choices will lose you money. Here are three excellent bets, against the spread, that go a little bit off the beaten path.
*Home teams in caps
**Spreads and bet percentages courtesy of Pregame.com
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1. LIONS (-3) over Bears
The 0-5 Lions seemed to hit rock bottom last week, getting shellacked by the Cardinals and benching QB Matthew Stafford for Dan Orlovsky. For those wondering…Dan Orlovsky? Yes, THAT Dan Orlovsky, the one who ran out of the back of the end zone on a drop back and scramble.
The Lions let go of their best two defensive linemen in the offseason, and the soul of the team went with them. Yet, they’re still giving points to a team that is on a two-game winning streak. That’s because the Bears are banged up, they’re on the road, and bad teams don’t go on three-game winning streaks very often. The spread is a trap!
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The Bears defense is terrible, and Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Golden Tate are all due for big games. Close your eyes, hold your nose, and place the bet.
2. Cardinals (-4) over STEELERS
The Steelers are probably getting credit for a tough road win at San Diego on Monday night, but bringing Michael Vick on a shortened week to face a red-hot Cardinals defense is a recipe for disaster for Pittsburgh.
Arizona’s lines have been suspiciously low all year, and it is starting to seem like the oddsmakers are being flat-out stubborn. There’s no case that Arizona isn’t one of the best teams in the NFL right now, and without even looking at numbers, Vick is obviously a detriment to the Steelers offense.
He couldn’t move the ball vs. San Diego, and now he’s up against the No. 2 team in the NFL in takeaways (13, tied with the Jets). Le’Veon Bell is awesome, but unless he’s a member of the X-Men in the offseason, Sunday will be a long week. The Cardinals could be much bigger favorites, and I'd still love them.
3. BILLS (+3) over Bengals
EVERYONE is drinking the Cincinnati Kool-Aid and rightfully so. They are a humming machine on offense, with A-level talent at all the skill positions, a well-rounded offensive line, and a QB (Andy Dalton) playing his best football ever.
But only one team has ever gone undefeated, so the Bengals will lose at some point. This is a classic bet-against-the-public game. The line’s small, so the world loves Cincy. How do you think Vegas makes it’s money?
The Bills have the defensive line to throw off Dalton, ball hawks that can force turnovers, and a commitment to the running game that can help them control the clock. Plus, they are home underdogs. It’s an excellent spot. Also, don’t be afraid that Tyrod Taylor might be out. He does not represent a significant difference to oddsmakers from EJ Manuel, his backup.
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