In fantasy football finding undervalued veterans other owners have jumped ship on is a great way to find bargains. It isn't always the young guns that provide late value in snake drafts, or cheap prices in auctions. There is risk, however. In the NFL players' powers can go in a flash.
Here are five veteran players that have remained consistent throughout their careers, but should be avoided.
Frank Gore, RB Indianapolis Colts
Gore, 32, has been a physical marvel over his 10-year career, the entirety of which has been spent as a San Francisco 49er. Now in Indianapolis, with Andrew Luck under center, one might think Gore's value will see a boost.
I think the opposite is true. Gore scored just four touchdowns last year, ceding work to rookie rusher Carlos Hyde. He has looked slower each season, and while his yardage and yardage per carry have remained steady, he was running behind one of the NFL's most underrated offensive lines. San Fran had a solid "Stuffed Rank" according to FootballOutsiders.com, which ranks an offensive line's propensity for being stopped in short-yardage situations.
Their "Power Success" ranked dead last though, which measures success on short-yardage runs on third and fourth down that result in first downs or touchdowns. That might be on Gore, and in Indianapolis he'll be running behind an inferior line.
Steve Smith, WR Baltimore Ravens
Don't let Smith's end-of-season totals fool you. Fantasy football is a weekly game, and Smith was shaky from week-to-week. From Games five through 16 Smith averaged just 53 yards per game and scored three touchdowns. In Weeks 1-4 he averaged six catches, 107 yards and a touchdown.
Smith is 36 this season, and for all his fire and toughness the Ravens are looking to scale back his role. Also, head coach John Harbaugh said he wants to reduce Smith's snaps, and the Ravens selected burner Breshad Perriman with the No. 26 pick in this draft. Smith will still have his explosions, but he's more WR depth than anything in 2015.
Brandon Marshall, WR New York Jets
Marshall was a smart addition for the Jets this offseason. He cost them very little (one 7th round pick) and should draw defensive attention from Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley. That said, he will not be the fantasy stud owners are used to drafting.
Marshall has a chemistry with Jay Cutler that was clear in Chicago and in Denver. When Marshall played for the Miami Dolphins with mediocre quarterbacking, he went from "great" production to "good." Expect more of the same this year; he's 31 years old, and will have either Geno Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing the passes.
Greg Jennings, WR Miami Dolphins
Jennings is not the superstar he was with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, and although he's left Minnesota, he left a promising QB (Teddy Bridgewater) behind for a newly-paid one (Ryan Tannehill) that struggles with the deep ball.
Jennings also faces a ton of in-house competition. Second-year man Jarvis Landry has carved out a niche as a high-usage slot receiver, Kenny Stills is a younger option, and wide receiver DaVante Parker wasn't taken in the low teens to ride the pine. Jennings will be knocking on the door of 32 when Week 1 rolls around, and he hasn't even reached 70 receptions in any of the past three years.
Jason Witten, TE Dallas Cowboys
At 33 years old, Witten's days as a top-flight tight end are done. Witten will still be a serviceable weapon for Tony Romo, but his chances of cracking the Top 5 are nil. His receptions were down again from two years ago, and he is failing to separate from defenders, which means even his red zone targets have disappeared. Low yardage can be tolerated if there are high touchdown totals, but his five last season may be the new norm.
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