Each year there are sleepers who are picked in the mid-to-late rounds that win leagues for their owners. On the flip side, there are big-ticket players that get taken too early and sink those owners' chances. Each year it's super fun to identify the sleepers, but it might be more important to recognize the busts.
Here are the top 5 likeliest busts at third base. These busts are always relative to draft position.
Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers (ADP-27, Other positions: none)
It's scary to think of Beltre as a possible bust, but he's turning 36 this season, hit more ground balls than usual last year, and has seen drop off in his home run to fly ball ratio for two consecutive seasons. Some owners are ranking him as a surefire, upper tier player at the hot corner. I will rank him well, but be advised not to anticipate a 30-home run, 100 RBI season out of him.
Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles (ADP-81, Other positions: 1B)
Davis is an interesting case. Some view him as a buy-low candidate coming off more than 50 home runs in 2013, followed by a bizarre season in which he was suspended has sufficiently sunk his ADP.
The problem with his brutal 2014 season was that it looked much more like his history than 2013 did. Strikeouts have always been an issue for Davis, it just was more tolerable when he was hitting a home run every few plate appearances.
Yes, his BABIP is due to trend back up, but he was way less aggressive at the plate than he was a season ago, and he was hitting fewer fly balls.
Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP-110, Other positions: 2B, OF)
Harrison is valuable to fantasy teams for his versatility, but entering the season with Harrison as your primary 3B is a mistake. While he's doubtlessly talented, Harrison benefitted in a big way from a .353 BABIP last season that helped his batting average soar to .315.
His MLB track record is bereft of such success aside from 2014, and he had a huge spike in power in the second half of the season that might be a bit misleading. All this risk makes him a poor fit at 3B, a position shallow in top tier talent but very deep in the middle.
Pablo Sandoval, Boston Red Sox (ADP-119, Other positions: none)
Sandoval will be in the middle of a beefy Red Sox lineup, but he's looking particularly heavy this offseason and he's never hit more than 20 home runs. Kung Fu Panda appeared in a career-high 157 games, but he's needed time off in each of the three prior seasons.
I do not have qualms about Sandoval being a helpful .285 hitter with okay power and a solid OPS. He is a poor choice at this juncture, however, because there are riskier options below him with much more potential.
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs (ADP-151, Other positions: none)
Bryant is an exciting prospect in the Cubs system, but he's going as a Top 150 pick and he currently doesn't have a spot on the big league roster. That's because he's had defensive problems, which do not affect fantasy, and huge strikeout issues, which do affect fantasy.
Bryant slugged 42 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A in 2014, but he struck out in 28.6 percent of his at-bats at Triple-A and that will only get uglier in the bigs unless he improves both his contact rate and plate discipline. That may take time, and in fantasy time is rarely something owners can afford to waste.
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