During fantasy football draft season, fantasy owners are constantly searching for those sleepers that can set a team apart from the pack and win a league. Sometimes though, avoiding the big flops early in the draft can be equally effective.
Today, you'll find five wide receivers being drafted in the Top 60 overall players that might let you down in PPR formats, a.k.a. leagues in which a full point is awarded per reception.
Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers (ADP: 29.6)
Allen was a stud as a rookie last season during the Philip Rivers revival, but to be 11th wide receiver off the board in PPR formats is too optimistic. Allen was a big-play guy, but his 4.7 receptions per game don't stack up against players like Pierre Garcon, who caught seven passes a game and is ranked a spot behind Allen.
Allen's primary value was performing at a WR1 level as a free agent pickup; by drafting him inside the Top 30, owners are hoping he can perform as well as he did a season ago, and getting no value from it. There are safer options with similar upside.
Vincent Jackson, Tamba Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 34.9)
Like Allen, Vincent Jackson is a supremely talented wideout who is better suited for standard scoring. His career-high in receptions (78) came last season, and he's a proven source of touchdowns.
There are warts too though. His quarterback situation is up in the air, as underwhelming options Mike Glennon and Josh McCown duke it out to be the starter. The Bucs' offensive line isn't very stout, rookie WR Mike Evans will almost certainly steal red zone targets, and new head coach Lovie Smith has a penchant for running more than throwing. Did I mention Doug Martin is healthy again?
Touchdown upside is welcome in any format, but a Top 35 pick in PPR should be spent on someone who is targeted more.
Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (ADP: 39.2)
Johnson's not getting drafted as high as he used to, but 39th overall is still too high for a 33-year-old who requested a trade this offseason and will be catching passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Yes, he's topped 108 receptions in back-to-back years and easily passed 1,000 yards receiving, but it's better to be a year too early than a year too late. Matt Schaub was maligned last season, and rightly so, but prior to the 2013 meltdown Schaub was an above-average passer.
His yards per reception were down last season, and his touchdowns have dipped in both seasons as well-telltale signs of some slippage in his athleticism.
Finally, the offense will be new this year after the firing of head coach Gary Kubiak. All this points to someone with big red flags-why not be exciting and take someone a little younger?
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (ADP: 55)
It makes sense that Edelman's getting drafted as a fifth-rounder after a season in which he snatched 6.6 passes per game. The problem for Edelman is that he's one of many in the Patriots' passing game. Kenbrell Thompkins has been excellent this preseason, Danny Amendola is healthy for now, and Brandon LaFell might be the most established receiver in the group.
Throw in the injured Aaron Dobson who will come back at some point, and factor in tight end Rob Gronkowski's involvement as well as running back Shane Vereen's and it's hard to imagine Edelman getting 151 targets again.
If the targets go down, Edelman's value disappears completely because he's not a red zone target nor is he explosive enough to be counted on for turning short passes into long scores.
DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins (ADP: 56.3)
DeSean Jackson went ballistic in 2013 to the tune of 82 catches, 1,332 yards and nine touchdowns and then was surprisingly let go by the Eagles in the offseason. That's a warning sign.
Then there's the fact that prior to Chip Kelly running the show, Jackson had never caught more than 62 passes. Jackson's always been a premier threat to score long touchdowns, but in PPR formats he's unreliable week to week as a WR2.
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